Fresh Jared Goff contract extension projection lands right in expected territory

The Detroit Lions have some contract extensions on their agenda this offseason, headlined by Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown. Taylor Decker wants to be a Lion for his entire career as he enters the final year of his contract, and Penei Sewell is in line for a massive contract as his fifth-year option gets inevitably picked up.

On the matter of an extension for Goff to keep him the Lions' quarterback beyond next season, it's a matter of time and it should not linger very far into the offseason without being done. General manager Brad Holmes did not say much of anything about any contract extensions during an appearance on 97.1 The Ticket Monday morning, as expected.

The biggest question about Goff's looming contract extension is the length. The new deal will also surely reduce his $32.3 million cap hit for this year, perhaps substantially, A $5 million roster bonus due to him on March 15 serves as something of a deadline for a deal to get done.

New Jared Goff contract extension projection lands in expected territory

Michael Ginnitti of Spotrac recently put out some fresh contract extension projections for six quarterbacks in line for new deals this offseason, Goff of course among them.

Ginnitti projects a four-year. $180 million deal for Goff ($45 million per year), with $86.5 million guaranteed at signing and $146.5 million practically guaranteed. Taken with the final year of his current contract, it becomes five years and $206.5 million in total.

"Goff has answered every bell since joining the Lions, and now enters an expiring contract year, set to earn $26.6M against a $31.6M cap hit. It’s not a foregone conclusion that Detroit will extend Goff this offseason, but for now it remains highly likely. We’ve tacked on 4 new years, $180M new money to his contract, combining for a total value 5 years, $206.5M. While we’ve only allocated $86.5M guaranteed at signing (a little escrow relief for a front office that might have 4 large extensions to process this spring), from a practical standpoint, we’ve locked in $146.5M of this contract (71%). Goff earns a $20M pay raise in 2024, and $136.5M over the next 3 seasons. It’s far from a top of the market contract, but it might be just what the doctor ordered to the Lions competitive for the next few seasons."
-Michael Ginnitti. Spotrac

In Ginnitti's projection, the $86.5 million in guarantees at signing breaks down like this.

-$45 million in total new signing bonus
-$5 million roster bonus, due March 15, 2024
-Fully guaranteed base salaries in 2024 ($1.5 million) and 2025 ($15 million)
-$5 million option bonuses each year from 2025-2028

The additional $60 million in practical guarantees comes from a $25 million 2026 base salary (fully guaranteed in March 2025, guaranteed for injury at signing), a $25 million roster bonus in 2026 (fully guarantees in March of 2025, guaranteed for injury at signing) and a $10 million roster bonus for 2027 (fully guarantees in March of 2026).

As expected, Ginnitti's projected extension drops Goff's 2024 cap hit to $15.5 million. The subsequent cap hits look like this.

2025: $29 million
2026: $64 million
2027: $49 million
2028: $49 million
2029 (void year, dead money): $5 million

2029 is tacked on as an automatic void year, to spread out option bonus money.

The projected deal, as a practical matter, marries the Lions to Goff through 2027. The dead cap hit attached to parting ways drops from $33 million in 2027 to $19 million in 2028.

Four years, $180 million is basically the bullseye for Goff's contract extension; not at the top of the market, but not very far below it. He gets a significant raise for 2024, and in this projection $136.5 million over the next three seasons. If the ultimate deal is a whole lot different, at least in terms of years, AAV, total value and percentage of guaranteed money, it will be surprising.