Projecting Amon-Ra St. Brown's contract extension with the Lions

Through three seasons, Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown is in some rare production air in both franchise and league history. He is no doubt one of the best wide receivers in the NFL, and he's now entering the final year of his rookie contract.

St. Brown is toward the top of the list of contract extensions the Lions have on their agenda this offseason, probably only behind Jared Goff or a proverbial "1B" to the quarterback. "The Sun God" is not going to go into next season without a new deal, and it will definitely put him among the highest-paid wide receivers in the league.

Apart from his skill level, St. Brown is a foundational piece of the Lions' culture. It's hard to see him holding out if he doesn't get a new deal before training camp, but it's not out of the question. Talks should be going on already.

What will Amon-Ra St. Brown's contract extension with the Lions look like?

Spotrac and Over The Cap project values for players, and with his new contract coming they've done so for St. Brown.

Spotrac projects St. Brown's market value at $26.3 million, on a four-year deal ($105.2 million total).
Over The Cap projects St. Brown's value at $25.46 million.

Those numbers are in the range of what A.J. Brown, Stefon Diggs and DK Metcalf make. Spotrac has Brown and Metcalf as comps for St. Brown in their projection formula.

Metcalf’s three-year, $72 million contract extension with the Seahawks included a $30 million signing bonus and $58.2 million (80 percent of the total) fully guaranteed. Brown's four-year, $100 million deal with the Eagles had a $23.2 million signing bonus and $57.2 million (57.2 percent) guaranteed.

St. Brown will turn 25 in October, so the Lions will not hesitate to commit to him and pay him what he's worth.

What an extension looks like will then depend on what he's looking for, in terms of structure of guarantees, number of years, etc. Will he want more years, and thus a smaller percentage of the deal fully guaranteed? Or will he want to go a year less with a bigger percentage guaranteed, with the idea of getting to another lucrative multi-year deal faster?

Here's my projection for St. Brown's contract extension. Note that a void year could be, and likely will be, tacked on to spread out the cap impact of the signing bonus.

Four years, $102 million; $60 million fully guaranteed, $30 million signing bonus