The Detroit Lions may not have had the most exciting offseason. At least, not as exciting as most fans would've liked to see out of them.
However, the Lions did make moves to reshape the offensive line. They also drafted a second-round EDGE, and they found replacements for departing players like tackle Taylor Decker, running back David Montgomery, and cornerback Amik Robertson.
How does the 2026 Lions' roster stack up compared to the rest of the league as it stands now?
Austin Mock of The Athletic shared his latest rankings per his NFL Projection Model, which "uses various metrics and assigns a projection to each player to show their impact on a single game."
The end result is what Mock calls xMOV (expected margin of victory), showing how much that roster would be expected to win or lose by against an average NFL roster.
The Los Angeles Rams lead the way at +6.3, followed by the reigning Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks at +5.3, and then the Buffalo Bills at +4.1. After that, there's a slight drop off where the following 12 teams are between +3.1 (Kansas City Chiefs) and +2.2 (Houston Texans).
Mock then provides his own rankings based on that, but it aligns almost exactly with the model. The few exceptions include the Philadelphia Eagles, who were ranked seventh in the model (+2.8), but ranked fifth in Mock's personal list, and the New England Patriots, who ranked 12th in the model (+2.5), but fell to 15th on Mock's list.
Taking the Patriot's place at #12 are the Lions, who earned a 13th-best +2.4 in the model.
"A lot of this projection rides on rookie OT Blake Miller. A good offensive line would go a long way toward allowing Jared Goff to play to his ability and maximize the talent of Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown. If Miller doesn't hit the ground running, the Lions' offensive line would drop them enough to give me some pause.
The rest of the roster has elite players (Aidan Hutchinson, Jack Campbell, Brian Branch) supplemented by average-ish ones."
Mock's explanation makes perfect sense. The Lions went out of their way to remodel the OL after a dismal 2025 in the wake of center Frank Ragnow's retirement, then attempted comeback, then re-retirement. Heading into free agency, the Lions also had to overcome Decker's sudden departure, creating a Pro Bowl-sized void at left tackle.
Quarterback Jared Goff played well despite that OL, with the help of extremely talented skill position players like RB Jahmyr Gibbs and wide receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams. If Goff was able to post similar numbers in 2025 that he did in 2024, where he finished fifth in MVP voting, then an improved OL in 2026 could vault him back to MVP contention.
But if the OL performs poorly, asking Goff to try to carry the offensive load once again may be too much of an ask. The Lions would likely be heading toward another underwhelming season.
Health issues marred the Lions' defense last season, and it's unclear how much of Mock's model takes health and availability into account. Mock listing safety Brian Branch as one of the team's elite players possibly indicates he's looking at this from a full-strength standpoint, as Branch will miss a part of the 2026 season due to injury.
The defense saw notable departures like Robertson, linebacker Alex Anzalone, and EDGE Al-Quadin Muhammad, with the Lions replacing them either through free agent signings like CB Roger McCreary or through the draft, such as the selection of EDGE Derrick Moore.
Still, the defensive side of the ball is the Lions' weaker side, which likely explains why the Lions didn't perform better in Mock's model.
Where does the rest of the NFCN rank?
The NFCN is becoming a very difficult division to rank and predict. All four teams finished above .500 in 2025, and none of them had an eye-popping offseason.
Mock's model currently has the Lions second in the NFCN. Ahead of them are the Green Bay Packers, who rank ninth with a +2.6, per the model. With a +0.2 difference, the two rosters are close to a virtual tie. Their rankings are good for fourth and sixth-best in the NFC, with the San Francisco 49ers right in between at +2.5.
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There is a notable gap between the Packers and Lions and the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings. The two teams are right next to each other, with the Bears at #17 (+0.5) and the Vikings at #18 (+0.1). The Vikings are the lowest-ranked team with a positive xMOV.
Mock and his model suggest something most of us already know: the Lions have a really talented roster. On paper, they are absolutely a playoff team. It all comes down to how far the new-look OL and the health of the defense can take them.
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