If you took Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff in a fantasy football draft this year, you knew what you were getting. There would be a lot of good (usually at home), and some bad (usually on the road). Ideally, if you had to start him, you could do so along those home-road split lines. Yes, he has defied that at times, good or bad. But it has generally held up.
In three of four outdoor games this season, Goff has put up less than 15 fantasy points (Yahoo! scoring). He had a big game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 6 (353 yards, two touchdowns), and he needed 53 pass attempts to get to 284 passing yards in Week 7 against the Baltimore Ravens.
Week 14 brings a road game against the Chicago Bears. It could certainly be a lot worse weather in Chicago in early-mid December than it will be on Sunday, but it will be below 40 degrees with noticeable wind and a chance at some precipitation.
On the surface, the Bears are a good matchup for Goff. They're 29th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks this season. And leaving aside his three interceptions, Goff had 236 yards and two touchdowns (with a two-point conversion pass) against them back in Week 11.
Fantasy Football Week 14: Jared Goff is a no-brainer sit vs. Bears
But the Bears have been a lot better defensively lately. They have seven interceptions over their last two games, and over their last seven games only one opposing signal caller has topped 240 passing yards (Justin Herbert-Week 8) against them. Herbert is the only opposing quarterback who has topped 17 fantasy points (Yahoo! scoring) against them over that span.
Depending on your scoring settings, the Bears are allowing either the fewest or second-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterback over the last four weeks.
Aidan Cotter of FanDuel/numberFire summed up Goff's Week 14 fantasy outlook nicely.
"A chance for snow and high winds doesn't do Goff any favors, but you could do worse."
In fact, that last part really sums up Goff as a fantasy quarterback. "You could do worse", as you cross your fingers he does well enough in any given week. In Week 14, for those who may have playoff spot or a playoff seed on the line, doing better is a necessity. Finding a better option should not be hard, even a first-come, first-served waiver wire grab if it comes to that now.
Benching Goff this week should be easy for his fantasy managers. The floor might be fine, if you can live with the likelihood of 10-15 fantasy points in what may be a critical week. But the ceiling is not there, and to start Goff in Week 14 is to accept a mediocre floor and a low ceiling. Pretty much just like most weeks from Week 1-Week 13.