We recommended Jared Goff as a must-start in fantasy football for Week 1 against the Kansas City Chiefs, and it was easy to do so. He didn't put up big numbers (253 yards, one touchdown), and he finished as QB18 in fantasy for the week.
Goff's home-road splits last season are well-known by this point, and it's of course meaningful to how he should be deployed as a fantasy quarterback. Week 1 was of course a road game, and the Lions have their home opener in Week 2 against the Seattle Seahawks.
Goff faced the Seahawks at home in Week 4 last season, a 48-45 loss for the Lions. He threw for 378 yards with four touchdowns and an interception, on his way to being the QB1 in fantasy for the week.
It's safe to say the Lions' defense is better this year. It's also safe to say the Seahawks' offense is still quite good, and their wide receivers are unlikely to have the rash of drops the Chiefs' receivers did in Week 1. So it could be a high-scoring game again, and Vegas seems to think so with only two games having a higher over-under right now (odds subject to change).
Jared Goff will finish as a top-10 fantasy quarterback in Week 2 against the Seahawks
In Week 1, Rams' quarterback Matthew Stafford went 24-for-38 for 334 yards against the Seahawks. There were a couple near-miss touchdown passes and he was stuffed on a quarterback sneak at the 1-yard line, leading to Rams' running backs having three rushing touchdowns. Those missing points were the difference between him finishing as QB17 and being the QB1 for the week. Just one of those aforementioned plays going in his favor would have put him in the top-10 for the week.
At home. Against a secondary that just got torched by Stafford. The likelihood of a high-scoring game. It all points to Goff having a QB1-worthy outing in Week 2.
Jared Goff averaged 25.9 fantasy points per game at home last season.
— Joey Wright (@thejoeywright) September 13, 2023
9 starts.
274.6 passing yards per game.
23/3 TD/INT ratio.
Zero fumbles lost.
Seattle just allowed 334 passing yards to Matthew Stafford.#StartoftheWeek pic.twitter.com/fOyZfbCusz
Obviously, and I don't need to mention names, you're not benching someone who is a lock to be in your fantasy lineup for Goff this week. But left to choose between two quarterbacks of his ilk, like the quarterback who will be opposite him on Sunday (Geno Smith), the Lions' signal caller is the clear-cut better option. Anything less than a top-10 finish as a fantasy quarterback this week will be a disappointment.