Fantasy Football Week 1: Jared Goff is a must-start vs. Rams

As a fantasy football quarterback, Jared Goff has a certain ceiling based on offering next to nothing as runner outside of a stray touchdown here or there. He has been a top-10 fantasy quarterback in each of the last two seasons, on the strength of his passing production.

Goff's home-road, indoor-outdoor splits are also well-known, even if he defies them once in awhile. From a season-long perspective, the Lions only having three outdoor games all season (one before Week 16) is great news for Goff's fantasy production.

In Week 1, Goff and the Lions will welcome the Los Angeles Rams back to Ford Field for a rematch of last year's Wild Card Round game. Goff had 277 yards and one touchdown in that game, and the matchup looks better this time around.

The Rams of course lost defensive tackle Aaron Donald to retirement. They also recently traded their best inside linebacker, Ernest Jones. Cornerback Darious Williams was placed on IR this past week due to hamstring injury, leaving them thinner there.

Fantasy Football: Jared Goff is a must-start in Week 1 vs. Rams

Quarterbacks posted the sixth-most fantasy points per game against the Rams last year (19.47, Yahoo! scoring).

In his last 21 games at home (credit to Jamey Eisenberg of CBS Sports, who has Goff as his "Start of the Week for Week 1), Goff has posted at least 20 fantasy points 16 times with at least 25 points 10 times. Even with allowance for scoring differences between league hosts other than CBS that may shift the point benchmarks, that's a pretty nice recent run at home.

Over his last 17 home games (regular season, the last two seasons), Goff has averaged 277.2 passing yards and 2.47 passing touchdowns per game with nine total interceptions.

Rams-Lions has the highest over-under on the Week 1 slate (52.5 points on FanDuel Sportsbook, odds subject to change). The 4.5-point spread also gives the Lions the highest implied total on the slate (28.5 points). Opponents also had the third-highest neutral pass rate against the Rams last season (h/t to Hayden Winks of Underdog Fantasy).

Home game? Check. Favorable matchup? Check. High scoring game? Easily expected check. It's generally hard to to get excited about Goff as a fantasy starter, but the formula that says start him is all there in Week 1. Unless you've got a "set it and forget it" quarterback you paired him with in a draft, Goff is a lineup lock this week.