Was 2023 Jared Goff's ceiling as a fantasy football quarterback?

Jared Goff had a fine 2023 season, throwing for the third-most yards (4,575) and the second-most touchdowns (30) of his career. He also finished as the QB7 in fantasy football (through Week 18), with two touchdowns the only boost he had as a runner. But we know Goff's fantasy production solely rests on his arm.

Goff's road to that finish as a top-10 fantasy quarterback finish was a rollercoaster, with five weekly finishes in the top-10 and six finishes outside the top-20. He landed between QB10 and QB15 three times.

With everything back in place for the Lions' offense this year, other than losing Josh Reynolds in free agency, Goff is easily tabbed as a value in fantasy drafts this year (ADP of QB12, via Fantasy Pros).

Fantasy Football: Was 2023 as good as it gets for Jared Goff?

The overriding conversation with Goff, in real or fantasy terms, is about his ceiling. In fantasy terms, the fact he adds nothing as a runner lowers his ceiling automatically. So he has to maintain efficiency as a passer, with the only margin for upside possibly in touchdown rate (4.9 percent over the last two seasons.

Robert Lorge of RotoBaller put Goff on his recent list of quarterbacks to avoid in redraft leagues this year. While it may feel aggressive, there's a case for that take.

"I’m going to be blunt about this… I have some concerns. Last year, Goff finished as the QB15 with a 17.6 PPG average. Russell Wilson finished ahead of him with a 17.7 PPG average. Baker Mayfield was right behind him at 17.4 PPG. This is despite Goff throwing 4,575 yards and 30 touchdowns. How much better are we expecting him to be?"

Wilson and Mayfield is not territory you want to be in as a fantasy quarterback. But Lorge had more.

"In 2022, Goff finished as the QB14 with a 17.6 PPG average. He was only QB14 despite throwing for 4,438 yards, 29 touchdowns, and just seven interceptions. Again, I’m going to ask, how much better are we expecting him to be? Last year, Goff finished as a weekly top 12 quarterback six times—37.5%.

"From 2022-2023, Goff has finished as a weekly top 12 quarterback 13 times. 39.5%. He’s finished between QB13 and QB24 15 times, or roughly 47%. Okay, I want you to remember those numbers because they will be very important in just a second. Goff finished as a QB1 37.5% of the time in 2023 and 39.5% since he became the Lions’ starter in 2022."

Those rates cut the fantasy season off at Week 17, which the majority of leagues do.

Lorge went on to compare Goff's rates finishing as a QB1 last year (37.5 percent) and over the last two years (39.5 percent) to Geno Smith, Mayfield, Deshaun Watson, Trevor Lawrence, Justin Herbert, Kirk Cousins and Derek Carr. Most are above the Lions' signal caller in both, with some context added for a new team last year (Mayfield and Carr) or simply not playing much (Watson).

The difference between Goff being QB14 or QB15 by fantasy points per game in each of the last two seasons and drafting him as the QB12 in the eighth or ninth round (12-team leagues) this year is marginal. But that can be defined as an overpay, however slight, and Lorge did hit the right overall note about Goff as a fantasy quarterback.

How much better can he be this year? What is his floor? What is his ceiling? Last year may have been the ceiling, but that doesn't mean he can't repeat it this year.