Detroit Lions running back David Montgomery is lined up to miss some time, which is obviously bad news for his fantasy football owners. But on the good side, any logically frustrated Jahmyr Gibbs fantasy owners can take solace in his return for Week 7 against the Baltimore Ravens after he has missed the last two games.
Gibbs will go back into the lineups for most of his fantasy managers in season-long leagues in Week 7, especially with six teams on a bye. When Montgomery was out in Week 3, Gibbs got the carry volume (17, for 80 yards), many have wanted to see despite Montgomery's success this year. Something similar is likely this week.
It is a tough matchup for Gibbs and the Detroit ground game, as the Ravens have a top-10 run defense in the league by DVOA and raw numbers. In fantasy terms they are middle of the pack against running backs though, and three running backs have posted over 60 total yards against them over their last two games. So there is a path to production.
Lions running backs Jahmyr Gibbs and Craig Reynolds are on DFS value radar in Week 7
Shifting toward DFS play for Week 7, on FanDuel and DraftKings, here are Gibbs' salaries.
For a comparison point, Gibbs is $1,600 cheaper than the all but sure to be out Montgomery on FanDuel this week. Kareem Hunt is the other running back at $6,200 there. On FanDuel and DraftKings, on a thinner Sunday slate with six teams idle, Rams running back Kyren Williams (who will be out in Week 7) is $8,500 and $7,100 respectively.
With the prospect of 15-20 touches, Gibbs has a floor that gives him DFS appeal at a fair price point. And there's solid upside, driven by the idea he could break a long run or two. Via FanDuel Research/numberFire, here's a nugget for Gibbs as a DFS value this week.
"This is a pretty good matchup for Gibbs to see that passing-game work, as the Ravens are 26th in adjusted fantasy points per target allowed to backs. If he can get over 20 adjusted opportunities (carries + 2x targets), he should do more than enough to hit as a value back."
Reynolds has popped up on this week's practice reports with toe and hamstring issues, so his status for Sunday is somewhat up in the air right now. But if he's able to go, he's at $5,600 on FanDuel and $4,900 on DraftKings. As a touchdown-dependent punt play to open up money elsewhere in appropriate contests, there are worse ways to go if Reynolds suits up.
With so many teams on bye, Sunday slate DFS lineup builds are a bit tougher this week in terms of depth and finding ways to differentiate. Casual users many see a red flag in an injury designation/note next to Gibbs' name, and move away from him. But that's an opportunity for those who pay attention more to find a value play at a low ownership rate.