Based on ADP right now, even with a bump down a notch to RB14 in full PPR as of Wednesday morning, Lions rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs is straddling the line of becoming overvalued in fantasy drafts. A bump to RB1 territory (RB12 or higher), particularly in PPR formats, is not out of the question over the remainder of draft season.
It has almost become contrarian to not be all-in on Gibbs' fantasy stock this season. For some people, the odds he is a disappointment as a rookie are slim to none. His ceiling is certainly very high, and his floor is raised by the expectation he'll be a prominent passing game weapon in the Lions' offense.
Kyle Soppe of Pro Football Network recently raised a burning fantasy football question for each NFL team. The Lions seem like good fodder for something like that, from Amon-Ra St. Brown's outlook, to Jared Goff's chances to repeat last year to if Sam LaPorta can defy history for rookie tight ends.
But Gibbs is naturally a good subject too, in certain lights, and Soppe went there.
"Burning" fantasy question for Jahmyr Gibbs borders on bold prediction territory
Here's the Soppe's "burning" fantasy question for the Lions, regarding Gibbs.
Detroit Lions: Could Jahmyr Gibbs Provide More Value Than Fellow Rookie Bijan Robinson?
Bijan Robinson is considered a no-brainer to be the No. 1 rookie in fantasy this year. But let's see what Soppe wrote.
"Now we are talking! Gibbs enters an offense that led the league in RB fantasy points last season and owns the type of versatile profile that should translate to immediate production.- Kyle Soppe, Pro Football Network
The thorn in his side is David Montgomery (over 200 carries and 230 touches in all four seasons in Chicago), a veteran back who possesses more of an early-season threat to Gibbs’ role than Atlanta Falcons second-year back Tyler Allgeier does to Robinson. But by the end of this season, I wouldn’t be shocked if Gibbs closes the gap and makes this a conversation with your fantasy title on the line.
Maybe this is thinking too hard, but the Lions are a different team indoors than they are outside, can we agree on that? Last season, Detroit racked up 32.0 PPG when playing with a roof over their heads (18.5 PPG in outdoor games), and that naturally raises the fantasy value of all involved pieces.
Why do I mention that? From Week 11-18, the Lions play four indoor games, and three of their four road games come indoors. If that trend continues to 2023 and this offense is scoring 30-plus points a night, the two-to-three-round discount you got on Gibbs in August has a good chance to land you a title in January!"
It wasn't the premise of the piece, but Soppe didn't go all the way in to say Gibbs would provide more fantasy value than Robinson this year. Just that it may be a conversation down the stretch of the fantasy schedule, with a favorable path for Gibbs to make it a conversation with an ADP a couple rounds later than Robinson. It's an interesting notion, falling just shy of being a bold prediction.