The Detroit Lions invested the No. 12 overall pick in April's draft in Jahmyr Gibbs. So they clearly have big immediate plans for him, as general manager Brad Holmes recently invoked some notable names in praising his all-around skill set.
In a backfield tandem with David Montgomery, Gibbs' best path to production and fantasy value is as an all-around weapon and a prominent passing game target. His ADP as training camp approaches is nearly toeing the line of becoming overvalued, and that will be worth watching in the coming weeks.
The fantasy upside for Gibbs, even as a rookie, is big this year. If Montgomery were to go down with an injury, it would hit the stratosphere as the Lions' lead back. But with that, he'll be drafted as if he'll get close to that ceiling with a broad dismissal of the downside whether Montgomery is healthy or not. On an analyst level, for whatever it's worth, expectations for Gibbs are broadly high in his rookie season.
Bold prediction for Jahmyr Gibbs feels like it'll be the expectation for many fantasy managers
Fantasy Pros recently put out a list of bold predictions for each NFL team this year. For the Lions, from Joe Pisapia, the bold prediction was of course involving Gibbs.
"Jahmyr Gibbs will finish as an RB1 in PPR- Joe Pisapia, Fantasy Pros
The Lions will be short staffed in the WR Room with Jameson Williams missing 6 games. Gibbs my be a rookie, but he played at Alabama, so I don’t expect much of a learning curve as their offense was more complex than Detroit’s. The fact the Lions moved up to take Gobbs tells you how high they are on him, and with that draft capital spent, Gibbs is going to be a central part of the offense. He’s incredibly smooth as a pass catcher and has big play making ability. "
An "RB1" finish is of course a top-12 finish at running back, with PPR an important but not necessarily huge note given the prevalence of that scoring. But Gibbs' ESPN ADP (full PPR their default scoring system) is at RB13 right now. A rise or a spot or two during training camp and the preseason, and he'll be getting drafted right in line with the bold prediction.
Gibbs stands to be someone fantasy managers are firmly in or out on at his ADP in re-draft leagues this year, even in PPR where his value and the perception of his upside is greatest. A bold prediction for an RB1 finish in PPR scoring will simply be what some expect him to deliver, ultimately right or ultimately wrong.