After finishing as a top-10 fantasy wide receiver in 2022, Amon-Ra St. Brown improved his numbers across the board and finished as the WR3 regardless of scoring format last year (through Week 18). His place among the top tier of fantasy wide receivers is locked in for the foreseeable future.
St. Brown had a short downturn last season, with less than 50 yards in back-to-back games at an inopportune time for fantasy managers (Week 13 and 14). But he saved some grace with a touchdown in Week 13, and overall he was as consistent as it gets, leading the league with nine 100-yard games and 13 games with 15-plus fantasy points (PPR scoring). In the 16 games he played, he had less than seven targets once and nine or more targets 11 times.
When it comes to "safe" first-round picks in this year's fantasy drafts, St. Brown is at or near the top of the list. But don't take that to mean he doesn't have nice upside, because he has legit overall WR1 potential this year.
Amon-Ra St. Brown tabbed as top value pick in 2024 fantasy drafts
Fantasy Pros consensus ADP (updated Aug. 10) has St. Brown at No. 8 overall, and the fifth wide receiver off the board. Fantasy Football Calculator has his ADP at No. 6 overall in PPR formats (half and full-PPR) and No. 9 in non-PPR.
With that No. 8 overall ADP in mind, Gary Davenport of Bleacher Report recently named St. Brown as his best Round 1 value in fantasy drafts.
"Last year, he was fifth among all wideouts in targets, third in receptions with 119, third in receiving yards with 1,515, fourth in touchdown catches with 10 and third in PPR fantasy points among wideouts."
"The last thing fantasy managers want is for their first pick to fail to meet expectations. Barring an injury, there's next to no chance that St. Brown will do that."
Kyle Soppe of Pro Football Network hit the same note regarding St. Brown.
"They say you can only lose a draft in the first round. You’re not doing that if you select St. Brown."
The conversation over whether or not to take St. Brown in the first round of a fantasy draft, with a tilt to PPR formats, could really start at No. 5 overall/the third wide receiver off the board. That ADP of No. 8 overall via Fantasy Pros' consensus looks like the floor, and if he happens to fall further than that drafters sitting there should happily take him.