In line with his improved numbers each year, Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown has become a top-end wide receiver in fantasy football. The touchdown correction that seemed sure to come last year did, as he topped 1,500 yards and caught 119 passes on his way to finishing as the WR3 regardless of scoring format (standard, 0.5-point PPR, full PPR).
St. Brown was also remarkably consistent, finishing as a top-24 (WR2) or top-36 (WR3) at rates no other wide receiver quite did in combination last year.
St. Brown is not going anywhere as a top-tier fantasy wide receiver this year. Imagine if he's not playing with a major oblique tear, or even one game with something different but arguably way worse. He will be a first-round pick in drafts, with a bump up the board in PPR formats.
Pro Football Focus fantasy analyst notes what may keep Amon-Ra St. Brown from being the WR1 this year
Pro Football Focus fantasy analyst Nathan Jahnke is rolling out some 2024 player profiles each day. St. Brown was among the three for Thursday, with a largely glowing review of his outlook for this year. A relative lack of deep targets (9.5 percent last year), rooted in Jared Goff's lack of deep attempts, was noted. But not necessarily as a particular thing that should diminish St. Brown all that much.
St. Brown has the general ingredients a wide receiver needs to finish as the WR1 in fantasy: target share/volume, heavy routes run volume (total and targets per route rate), yards after the catch, yards per route run, a lot of success lined up in the slot and outside, etc.). A knock to his prospects to finish as the fantasy WR1 is the Lions having a run-first offense, and there's another that Jahnke reinforced.
"St. Brown deserves to get picked in the top half of the first round of PPR drafts. The Lions' run-first offense and Jared Goff’s aversion to deep passes might prevent St. Brown from being in the overall WR1 conversation, but an argument can be made that the Lions receiver is the safest pick in fantasy drafts this year."
It's not even that Goff is a bad deep ball thrower. He had the ninth-best PFF passing grade on 20-plus yard passes last year (92.7). It's an issue of deep ball volume, as Goff had just a 7.6 percent deep attempt rate during the regular season last year. There's also a sprinkling of less than ideal accuracy downfield (41.9 percent deep accuracy rate for Goff over the last three seasons, according to PFF).
St. Brown has a lot going for him, and Jahnke hinted he could be "the safest pick in fantasy drafts this year." He just may not quite belong in the overall WR1 conversation, which is a fair thought.