One of the residuals of drafting well, such as it gets labeled a problem to any extent, is when those young stars get to their second contracts. Such is the "predicament" for the Detroit Lions, as the last of three particularly stellar draft classes to start the Brad Holmes/Dan Campbell regime are reaching that point now.
At the top of that 2023 draft class, literally and figuratively, is running back Jahmyr Gibbs. His emergence as one of the best running backs in the league puts him in position to become the highest-paid running back in the league, and it feels like a lock the Lions will oblige.
At minimum, the Lions will pick up Gibbs' $14.3 million fifth-year option for 2027 on or before May 1 as a proverbial place holder for a bigger long-term deal. At the NFL Combine, Holmes confirmed contract talks have started with Gibbs' camp and "he has earned what he's going to get."
Latest Jahmyr Gibbs' prediction may wind up explaining quiet free agency run for the Lions
After news the contract the Los Angeles Rams are giving cornerback Trent McDuffie after acquiring him from the Kansas City Chiefs, Alex Kay of Bleacher Report took a run at projecting the next big contracts that will reset the market at a given position.
Of course Gibbs is in line to reset the market at running back, so he was the easy choice there.
"There aren't many running backs in the modern NFL who teams would be willing to give a blockbuster contract to, but Jahmyr Gibbs is one of them."
"The Detroit Lions star has been an absolute difference-maker during his three NFL seasons, helping turn the long-downtrodden organization into an offensive force with his elite athleticism, breakaway speed and dynamic playmaking skills."
"Although there were concerns going into the 2023 draft surrounding Gibbs' size and ability to withstand the rigors of a professional schedule, the Lions were rewarded for their faith in the Alabama product who they tapped at No. 12 overall that year. The back has since gone on to rack up over 5,000 yards and score 49 touchdowns from scrimmage in just 49 games."
"It wouldn't be outlandish to see Gibbs surpass Saquon Barkley as the NFL's highest paid running back. Barkley jumped Chrisitan McCaffrey and became the league's first $20 million back when he agreed to a two-year, $41.2 million extension last offseason, but the stars are aligning for Gibbs to blow past that record-setting mark."
"Given Gibbs' rare combination of youth—he won't turn 25 until late this month—consistent production, critical role in his team's offense and upside, it's quite possible he'll hit $22 million or more on his upcoming extension."
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Kay's contract prediction for Gibbs, three years, $63.5 million, came a little short of that $22 million per-year mark. But that prediction would still have him reset the running back market at $21.16 million per year.
Ultimately, with that fifth-year option in play, Gibbs' contract extension may not fully kick in until 2028. But if the Lions have another tame run through free agency this year, having to account for making him the highest-paid running back in the NFL will probably be tabbed as a big reason why.