While it's a welcome problem, a consequence for an NFL team that drafts well is having several players who are worthy of lucrative second contracts when it comes time.
The Detroit Lions have made a lot of moves on that front (Penei Sewell, Aidan Hutchinson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Kerby Joseph), but more are coming as a stellar 2023 draft class moves toward their paydays.
Jahmyr Gibbs, Jack Campbell, Sam LaPorta and Brian Branch have all proven worthy of second contracts at or near the top of the market for their positions. It's worth wondering if a tough decision will have to made to let one of them go when they can hit free agency, on the idea of "you can't pay everyone."
This season, injury layers were added to the conversation regarding LaPorta and Branch. LaPorta had a back injury that ended his season early and required surgery, while Branch suffered a torn Achilles late in the season.
With Gibbs and Campbell, the Lions can kick the proverbial contract extension can down the road via picking up their fifth-year options for 2027. In the past, Sewell essentially had his fifth-year option layered into a longer deal while Hutchinson's extension was tacked on to his fifth-year option.
Lions will (as expected) have to pony up for Jahmyr Gibbs' next contract
ESPN's Dan Graziano recently took a look at the notable contract extension situations for five teams. The Lions were of course included, in light of the four aforementioned players who are set for new contracts soon.
Graziano finished his look at the four Lions with Gibbs, with an easy idea about where that second contract will come in regard to annual average.
"Then there's Gibbs, the electrifying running back the Lions selected with the 12th pick in 2023. He has averaged 5.3 yards per carry and 13 touchdowns per season over his three years in the NFL.Saquon Barkley's post-Super Bowl extension with the Eagles brings his average annual salary to$20.6 million per year, which provides a target for top-end running backs. Gibbs likely tries to beat Barkley's number, while the Lions will likely try to keep the number under $20 million. Whether this gets done this offseason could come down to which side digs in harder."
Graziano went on to predict the Lions will sign all four of Gibbs, Campbell, LaPorta and Branch to contract extensions, with predictions for each. As expected, he had a big prediction for Gibbs' extension.
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"Gibbs: Four years, $80 million with $30 million fully guaranteed at signing"
That $80 million in total value will reset the current top of the running back market on that surface (Josh Jacobs, $48 million). The $20 million average would fall just shy of Saquon Barkley's $20.6 million per year average, and the $30 million fully guaranteed would fall shy of Barkley's $36 million guaranteed.
Gibbs will turn 24 in March, and a look at the highest-paid running backs in the league shows he'd be the youngest of the bunch if/when he enters that realm. So his agent can make a strong case for him to exceed Barkley's current top of the market numbers. The Lions might oblige too, with the ability to mitigate future salary cap hits via the structure of the deal.
While second contracts for running backs can be a slippery slope, due to the short shelf life of the position, Gibbs has proven worthy of becoming one of the highest-paid running backs in the league
(if not the highest-paid). Whatever the surface numbers, and the finer details, look like, it's a matter of time before it happens.