Since arriving to the Detroit Lions as a derided first-round pick in 2023, Jahmyr Gibbs is 3-for-3 making the Pro Bowl. He has topped 1,800 yards from scrimmage in each of the last two seasons, while also being among the best touchdown scorers in the league.
Somewhere on the Lions' agenda this offseason is picking up Gibbs' fifth-year option. Of course it will happen by May 1, if only as a placeholder to what may already be ongoing talks about a contract extension.
Paying running backs has become something NFL teams don't like doing, based on the comparitively short shelf life of the position. But the Lions are not afraid to go against the grain, and it's inevitabe they will pay Gibbs in the same fashion they have others who are seen as part of the team's core.
And, of course, it won't be cheap as Gibbs moves toward being one of the highest-paid, if not the highest-paid, running back in the league.
Jahmyr Gibbs' prediction will be an easy re-do for Brad Holmes
Conor Orr of SI.com has made an offseason prediction for each NFL team. For the Lions, regarding Gibbs' upcoming contract, he went all the way.
"The Lions will make Jahmyr Gibbs the highest-paid running back in NFL history, setting records in every meaningful contractual category."Â
"Bold? No. But Brad Holmes was with the Rams when the franchise bucked trends and signed Todd Gurley to a top-of-market extension. While this ultimately was a cautionary tale, the Lions’ offense won’t function as designed without the former first-round pick."
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When the Rams made Todd Gurley the highest-paid running back in the NFL, July of 2018, he was coming off back-to-back seasons with more than 275 carries. He went on the lead the league in rushing touchdowns again that season, but a chronic knee issue ended his prime quickly afterward and his career was over after his age-26 season.
Gibbs is currently the same age Gurley was, down to the day, approaching his 24th birthday. He has played three seasons, just like Gurley did when he got his big contract.
But his workload three seasons into his career, even with a notable spike the last two seasons, is not what Gurley's was at the same point. More of Gibbs' workload has been lower-impact touches (receptions) too. Beyond that, Gibbs has no known chronic physical issues that could quickly turn a long-term deal into a regrettable move.
Any big contract carries risk in the NFL, since one injury can derail a career in an instant. But Gibbs has proven worthy of a significant long-term investment, and Brad Holmes will not be scared away from doing it because he was close to a similar move that happened to go awry.