Lions tight end Sam LaPorta is impossible to trust as a fantasy starter

Entering Week 10, Detroit Lions tight end Sam LaPorta is TE15 in fantasy football (0.5-point PPR scoring). It could certainly be worse, with two touchdowns in his last four games, and it was worse before the Lions' Week 5 bye; to the point LaPorta was pointed to as an obvious buy-low in fantasy at that point.

Overall, it's not been what anyone who drafted LaPorta envisioned. He was the first, or no later than the second, tight end off the board in fantasy drafts. He has three or fewer targets in five of eight games this season, and the touchdown regression that seemed sure to come compared to his fantastic rookie season has indeed happened.

It's not been a snap count/playing time or a volume of routes run issue, For at least one game it was a deployment in a certain personnel group thing, but LaPorta is simply not seeing the targets he was last year. The emergence of Jameson Williams has been a huge factor there, as evidenced by Fantasy Points data (h/t to Michael F. Florio of NFL.com).

"LaPorta had a 27 percent target rate and a 24 percent first-read share (per Fantasy Points Data) in the two games without Williams; he posted a 12 percent target rate and eight percent first-read rate with him."

Ted Chmyz of Fantasy Pros pointed out more data outlining the difference for LaPorta in games Williams has and has not played so far this season.

"He (LaPorta) has averaged just 6.6 fantasy points per game on a miserable 11% target share. Those numbers get even worse if we look at games with Jameson Williams (who missed Weeks 8 and 9 with a suspension but returns this week) active: 5.9 points per game on an 8.4% target share."

So it's no coincidence LaPorta had his best game of the season in the first game of Williams' recently-completed two-game suspension (six receptions for 48 yards and a touchdown against the Tennessee Titans in Week 8, on a season-high six targets).

Sam LaPorta cannot be trusted as a fantasy starter this year

For LaPorta to justify his fantasy ADP (Average Draft Position) this year, he was going to have to at least see target volume. That has not happened, and at this point it feels like it won't outside of an occasional "spike" week.

In Week 10, it's not lined up to get better for LaPorta. The Houston Texans are allowing the fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season. No tight end has more than 41 yards against them this season (Hunter Henry in Week 6) and four (Cole Kmet in Week 2) is the season-high in catches for a tight end against them. Going a little deeper, the Texans have allowed the lowest completion percentage and passer rating on passes to tight ends this season.

After Week 10, the matchups get better for LaPorta. The Jacksonville Jaguars (Week 11), Indianapolis Colts (Week 12) and Green Bay Packers (Week 14) enter Week 10 allowing the eighth, fourth and 10th-most fantasy points to tight ends respectively (Yahoo! scoring, 0.5-point PPR).

Add in two games against the Chicago Bears (Week 12 and Week 15) and that's five of six games from Week 11-16 against teams who entered Week 10 in the top half of most favorable matchups for tight ends.

The easy consensus around the fantasy industry is to sit LaPorta in Week 10, and those who can should do so. The matchups look way better after that, at just the right time on the fantasy schedule.

But barring something unforeseen from here on out this season, even with those good matchups after this week, starting LaPorta each week has become a "cross your fingers and pray" proposition for his fantasy managers. Not ideal for someone who was generally a third-round pick by ADP.