Negative fantasy narrative around Sam LaPorta for this year is too easy

In a broad sense, Sam LaPorta was set up for success last season to the point he could defy the rookie tight end stigma in fantasy football. He certainly defied that stigma, setting the NFL record for receptions by a rookie tight end (86) and finishing as the TE1 in fantasy.

Of course a key question as we hit the teeth of fantasy draft season is if LaPorta can repeat as the TE1 this year. Those who think he can will gladly invest the required draft capital in him, while others will see a seemingly automatic sophomore slump of some degree coming.

Only two tight ends (T.J. Hockenson, Travis Kelce) had more targets than LaPorta last year. That target volume is unlikely to erode that much, with Josh Reynolds' 64 vacated targets lined up to be spread around.

Where LaPorta is lined up to regress is in the scoring column. His expected touchdown total last year was six, compared to the 10 he actually had. He also had games with two and three touchdowns, and six of his 10 touchdowns came from 10 or more yards out.

2024 Fantasy Football: Negative narrative around Sam LaPorta is not going away

LaPorta is of course the TE1 by ADP. Via Fantasy Pros, his overall ADPs right now (Aug. 3) are No. 22 (full PPR), No. 25 (standard scoring) and No. 26 (0.5-point PPR) overall. Second round in a PPR league is rich for a lot of people, and Andrew Ball of Rotoballer was against LaPorta when his ADP recent sat a couple notches down at 24th overall.

Ball's point is ultimately rooted in the challenge it will be for LaPorta to deliver on his TE1 ADP in the late-second or early third round, especially relative to the broader scope of where tight ends rank in fantasy production when lumped in with running backs and wide receivers. There is that touchdown regression thing too.

"LaPorta scored on 11.5% of his catches, which may be unsustainable. Travis Kelce, the best tight end of this generation, has a career touchdown rate of 8.3%."
-Andre Ball, Rotoballer

Scott Spratt of FTN Fantasy had LaPorta on a recent lists of fantasy busts for 2024, with his ADP on Underdog Fantasy at 36.6 when the article was posted. FTN's touchdown regression model gave LaPorta an expected touchdown surplus of 4.31 last season.

"A handful of players have beaten the regression odds consistently in their careers. But most players with LaPorta’s touchdown profile see their touchdown rates decline in their subsequent seasons. And if he scores 7 instead of 13 touchdowns in 2024, LaPorta will likely disappoint his third-round draft selectors."
-Scott Spratt, FTN Fantasy

Using a hypothetical span of 7-13 touchdowns for LaPorta is odd, as if people who draft LaPorta will expect him to have 13 touchdowns this year. That's not likely, or realistic.

There's the core of the issue with LaPorta in fantasy terms this year. ADP says you have to make him the first tight end taken in your draft, and do it in the late second or the third round. There will be some comfort in having a locked in starter at tight end, but at what opportunity cost for other positions? And on the assumption he has some regression, what will that look like?

LaPorta might be Kelce's successor as the clear No. 1 tight end in fantasy for years, but with just one season to go on it's easier to poke holes in him as the TE1 in drafts this year.