Entering Week 6, Sam LaPorta was just inside or just outside the top-24 tight ends in fantasy scoring. That made him easy to tab as a buy-low target, and Pro Football Focus' Nathan Jahnke did just that.
In Week 6 against the Dallas Cowboys, LaPorta had just one target. It was a 52-yard touchdown to save his fantasy bacon, but just one target (even in a blowout) is a concern. Jahnke dove deeper after the game to reveal some interesting things.
"Over the first three quarters, his (LaPorta's) playing time in 11 personnel was relatively normal, playing 23 of a possible 28 snaps, which left three passing plays where he was off the field. The concern was 12 personnel, where Brock Wright (18) and Parker Hesse (16) played more snaps than LaPorta (14). This left another five pass plays where LaPorta was off the field."
"LaPorta had played 97.5% of Detroit's 12 personnel snaps in the first three quarters of last season and 85.5% over the first four weeks. The 58.3% he played in this game was a dramatic decrease."
By all accounts LaPorta is healthy after dealing with a hamstring injury during training camp, and suffering an ankle injury in Week 3. So his lower snap share in "12" personnel (two tight ends) over the first three quarters of last Sunday's game is interesting, and odd.
The fantasy football narrative on Sam LaPorta has changed quickly
More information, even one game more, allows for a change of opinion. To that end, and as he hinted in the immediate postgame analysis, Jahnke has LaPorta on his list of fantasy "sell-highs" heading into Week 7. With one important caveat.
"It’s fine to consider him a sell-high candidate for now, but it’s also fine to wait and see if this role was a one-game anomaly or a sign of things to come."
It's clear LaPorta is not catching opposing defenses by surprise this year, and upon closer examination there were consistency concerns from a fantasy standpoint last year.
So Week 6 may have been a one-game anomaly in terms of LaPorta's playing time pattern. Or it could be a sign of things to come. But any fantasy manager who drafted him is likely riding with him as their starter no matter what, barring injury, and hoping there's nowhere to go but up from here (15 targets over five games). "Selling high" off a one-target game, as sweet as the one opportunity was, feels like an oxymoron.