The Detroit Lions had a historic draft in 2023. While it was panned at the time because Detroit used all four of their top picks on positions that are traditionally not valued very high, it turned out to be the best draft class in the league that year because all four of those picks were used on players who have ascended to the top of their positional groups.
And now, all four players are extension-eligible and can and/or will cost the Lions quite a bit of money. The Lions are now in quite the predicament. They have already committed an outsized amount of money on their current roster.
And based on their historical spending patterns they may not have a lot of money to use on players already under contract. But that plan could just cost them more money in the future.
It's possible that Lions owner Sheila Ford Hamp decides to push her chips into the center of the table and authorizes an increase in spending to help maximize the team's current winning window. If she does, they should place an equal emphasis on early extensions as they do on external additions. It all adds into smart roster management.
And if they do look extend those 2023 draft picks, they should start with running back Jahmyr Gibbs.
Jahmyr Gibbs' contract projection
Gibbs has been one of the best and most productive running backs in the NFL since entering the league three years ago. He is 7th in rushing yards, second in rushing touchdowns, and third in both receptions and receiving yards among all running backs over that time frame.
He'll also be the remaining top running back on the Lions' roster as free agency begins. David Montgomery, his former mate in the backfield, was traded to the Houston Texans. This likely means an even greater role for him in Detroit's offense moving forward, and a bigger rise up the board amongst running backs in these metrics.
Take a look at some comparable two-year resumes leading into contract years provides a who's who of the best (and highest paid) backs in the NFL:
Player | Age | Rush Yards | Yards/Car | Explosive Runs | Receptions | Rec Yds | Yds/rr | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jahmyr Gibbs (2024-2025) | 24.4 | 2,635 | 5.34 | 68 | 129 | 1,133 | 1.67 | 29 |
Christian McCaffrey (2018-2019) | 24.2 | 2,485 | 4.91 | 62 | 224 | 1,879 | 1.77 | 22 |
Jonathan Taylor (2022-2023) | 24.6 | 2,672 | 5.10 | 71 | 68 | 503 | 0.92 | 22 |
Gibbs' production aligns similarly to both McCaffrey and Taylor in volume, while his efficiency (yards per carry) outpaces both. And as a receiver, he has performed as close to McCaffrey as any other back in the league. The two players provide a good high and low for a projected contract.
McCaffrey's 2020 contract had an APY of just over $16 million. It represented 8.08% of the salary cap that year. Taylor's 2023 contract had an APY of $14 million, which was 6.23% of that year's salary cap. Applying those figures to the 2026 salary cap of $301.2 million creates a band of $18.75 million and $24.33 million.
At the low end of that range, Gibbs would be the third-highest paid running back in the league. At the high end, he would reset the market by over $3 million. A market-setting deal of that caliber is unlikely. And, Gibbs' total yards from scrimmage don't quite meet McCaffrey's incredible stretch from 2018-2019.
READ MORE: Rise of Jack Campbell should spell bad news for Lions' top in-house free agent
But if the Lions were to offer Gibbs a deal where he becomes the highest paid running back by a smaller margin - say $400k over Saquon Barkley's current position-leading $20.6 million - that would be a deal that makes all sides happy.
For the Lions, keeping Gibbs' APY as a percent of cap under 7% would be a win. It would be a lower mark than McCaffrey's 2020 deal as well as McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley's current deals. For Gibbs, he gets to boast he's the highest paid running back in the NFL.
Contract specifics
With a strong case for an APY of $21 million, the length and guarantees become the major sticking points. With Gibbs being a first-round pick, the Lions hold a fifth-year option on his current rookie contract. That amount is currently projected to be around $14.3 million.
That would be picked up as a part of an extension. From there the team would probably push for four additional years, while Gibbs' side would most likely want to limit the extra years to three.
I think the team would carry the leverage in this back and forth, rightfully arguing that the market-setting APY would be contingent upon the extra year. That would make the total deal six years and $101,476,429 with an effective APY of $16,912,738.
My estimate for the total guarantees on this deal would be $47,476,429 with $30 million of that new money. That would be the most guaranteed money for a running back in league history.
This is a deal that Gibbs can be proud of. And, one that can lock in one of the Lions' best players for years to come.