After a disappointing 9-8 season, the Detroit Lions need a jolt to their roster if they want to get back to their Super Bowl-contending ways. If Pro Football Focus' free agent contract predictions prove correct, that's easier said than done.
On Tuesday, PFF released their predictions for which free agents at each position will be the highest-paid, and their estimated contract value. Among those impending free agents are two players who would be major upgrades for the Lions at positions of need: pass rusher Trey Hendrickson and center Tyler Linderbaum.
The Lions' cap space is currently projected to be in the negative, even with the higher-than-expected salary cap increase, which means general manager Brad Holmes and his front office will have to get creative to create space.
The Lions will have their opportunities to clear up space via cuts, trades, and contract restructures. However, looming contract extensions for the 2023 NFL Draft class that produced four Pro Bowlers, including running back Jahmyr Gibbs and linebacker Jack Campbell, will greatly limit long-term flexibility.
If Hendrickson and Linderbaum's estimated contracts prove correct, the Lions may already be priced out.
Trey Hendrickson would compliment Aidan Hutchinson well
Hendrickson has long been a popular trade target among Lions fans and writers after his lengthy contract dispute with the Cincinnati Bengals created a likely expiration date with his current squad. Now, the former Defensive Player of the Year runner-up is set to be a free agent and can sign anywhere.
PFF projects a two-year, $50.89 million deal for the 31-year-old pass rusher, saying that when he's on the field, Hendrickson is "undoubtedly one of the NFL's most effective pass-rushers." PFF also adds that Hendrickson is "one of just six edge rushers to record a pass-rush win rate above 20% over the past three seasons while also ranking in the top three in sack production despite missing a majority of last season."
READ MORE: Notable Lions contract decision from 2025 looks like a mistake one year in
Hendrickson would be a dream come true to pair with Second-Team All-Pro Aidan Hutchinson as he enters his prime. Holmes, however, may be reluctant to give Hendrickson that asking price, as re-signing Al-Quadin Muhammad would be cheaper, as well as a draft spot in the 2026 NFL Draft that should yield numerous pass-rushing candidates. Not to mention the returning 2025 pick, Ahmed Hassanein, who missed all of this past season to injury.
With so many other pressing needs, Holmes likely sees the Lions' pass rush in good enough shape to pursue free agents at other positions instead of spending big at the position.
While Hendrickson might not get a monster deal like the one Hutchinson got, given his age and his injury issues last season, his talent is not in question. Teams like the Washington Commanders will be competing for his services, and it's difficult to see the Lions seriously engaging in a bidding war for Hendrickson, no matter how good they believe he is.
Tyler Linderbaum alone could fix much of the Lions' OL issues
How perfect would Linderbaum be? The Lions have a clear need at center after Frank Ragnow's retirement and failed comeback. Current center Graham Glasgow was ranked 33rd of 40 centers on PFF with a 56.8 grade. Pairing a center like that with two guards who didn't have NFL regular-season experience entering the season was a recipe for disaster.
Linderbaum will be far and away the best center on the market, and PFF's contract prediction is evidence of that, predicting four years and $70.89 million.
In their assessment, PFF notes Linderbaum's 78.0 or above run-blocking grade in all four of his seasons, adding, "Over that span, he’s proven to be elite regardless of scheme ranking in the 85th percentile or better in both gap and zone concepts."
Given the Lions' strong desire to be a heavy-run team, Linderbaum is a match made in heaven. The inclusion of the three-time Pro Bowler alone would have a strong ripple effect to his left and right sides, as guards Christian Mahogany and Tate Ratledge did show promise throughout last season, despite the difficult position they were put in.
PFF's contract prediction would bring Linderbaum just under Kansas City Chiefs' Creed Humphrey's $72 million deal as the highest-paid center in the league, and they note that their prediction may be conservative "given the need for quality blocking on the interior for many franchises."
READ MORE: Lions can quietly open $38 million in cap space without cutting a single player
Of course, one of those teams that could use Linderbaum's services is his current one, the Ravens. The Ravens, under new head coach Jesse Minter, have Super Bowl aspirations with their two-time MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson. The Ravens' run game is also bolstered by future Hall of Fame RB Derrick Henry. Bringing Linderbaum back figures to be the Ravens' top offseason objective. If not, then very close.
If the Lions spent big on an external player, Linderbaum would have to be the choice. He's about to turn 26, so a four-year deal would keep him in Detroit for the remainder of his 20s. The fit is perfect, it gives the team a sure thing to add to their long-term core, and it's one less thing to worry about in the drafts to come.
Can Holmes and the Lions pull off enough cap wizardry to make either free agent signing happen? It's possible, but Holmes has historically avoided big splash moves outside of contract extensions, and he has yet to signal that would change. With the prices of Hendrickson and Linderbaum expected to be high, it might be time to consider either player becoming a Lion one big pipe dream.