Detroit Lions general manager Brad Holmes hit the ground running with huge draft hits in his first three drafts. It's compelled him to stick with his drafting philosophy of intangibles, character, and developmental potential. But entering the 2026 NFL Draft, it may be time for a change in strategy.
On Wednesday, ESPN released its 2025 draft class ranking, ranking every team's rookie class based on production. The Lions ranked 22nd of 32. ESPN noted that only three of the Lions' seven 2025 draft picks saw meaningful playing time, including right guard Tate Ratledge, who started all 17 games, but writer Aaron Schatz didn't sound all that enthusiastic about the rookie class:
"Second-rounder Tate Ratledge started all 17 games at right guard, although he was below average in both pass block (87.4%) and run block (69.9%) win rates. First-round defensive tackle Tyleik Williams started 10 games and played in all 17, with 18 combined tackles and a sack. Third-round wide receiver Isaac TeSlaa had 16 catches for 239 yards, but six of those receptions were touchdowns, mostly of the highlight film variety.
The only other Lions draft picks to even play were fifth-round guard Miles Frazier (five games, no starts) and seventh-round receiver Dominic Lovett (12 games, mostly on special teams)."
Interestingly enough, the Lions did rank higher than two NFC North teams in the Green Bay Packers (29th) and the Minnesota Vikings (30th), along with four additional playoff teams in the San Francisco 49ers (27th), Pittsburgh Steelers (28th), Jacksonville Jaguars (31st), and Los Angeles Rams (32nd).
However, the reason many of those teams made the playoffs this season and not the Lions was the fact that they hit on last year's draft. Last year, ESPN ranked the Lions' 2024 rookie class 28th (ESPN+ required to read).
Meanwhile, the Rams topped that list, with the 49ers (6th) and Steelers (8th) in the top ten. Other playoff teams this year, like the Los Angeles Chargers (3rd), the Denver Broncos (7th), and the Chicago Bears (10th), all had top ten rookie classes as of this time a year ago.
Four of those teams listed make up half of the remaining eight teams entering the divisional round of the 2026 playoffs. The New England Patriots (11th) and Houston Texans (13th) are right behind them and still competing for this year's Super Bowl.
If it's any solace, the Seattle Seahawks ranked 23rd in last year's ranking, about the same spot as the Lions now. The Seahawks now sit at the #1 seed in the NFC with the 19th-ranked rookie class, per this year's rankings. It only takes one offseason to get back on track and bring the Lions back to the top of the NFC.
The Lions have been built through the draft
Even taking away guys like offensive tackle Penei Sewell and pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson, who fell into the Lions' lap thanks to the drafting decisions from other teams, Holmes has still struck gold throughout the draft.
In 2021, Holmes drafted All-Pro wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown in the fourth round. In 2022, Holmes took another All-Pro in safety Kerby Joseph in the third round, along with emerging WR Jameson Williams in the first.
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The 2023 NFL Draft might've been Holmes' magnum opus. Holmes rejected calls for positional value by drafting eventual three-time Pro Bowl running back Jahmyr Gibbs, First-Team All-Pro linebacker Jack Campbell, Second-Team All-Pro tight end Sam LaPorta, and Pro Bowl S Brian Branch with his first four picks.
Those first three draft classes contributed to the Lions' rise to back-to-back NFC North champions, multiple playoff wins, an NFC Championship appearance, and a #1 seed. His 2024 and 2025 drafts not paying off so far have played a role in that 15-2 team from last season disappointing in the playoffs, and the 2025 squad missing the playoffs entirely.
Holmes' drafting philosophy needs to evolve
Holmes greatly values developmental prospects. Guys with high potential that can be built into All-Pros like St. Brown or Joseph, who may have fallen under the radar or are recovering from injury. That development takes time, and this season is evidence that time is not a luxury this team has. Joseph, Branch, and LaPorta suffered significant injuries this past season.
The 2023 draft class is up for extensions, and difficult calls might have to be made. OT Taylor Decker may soon join center Frank Ragnow in retirement.
Needs in formally set positions are beginning to emerge, and numerous recent developmental draft picks, undrafted signings, and free agency moves have underwhelmed at best in their opportunities to fill in. With consecutive lackluster drafts, as it stands now, Holmes is greatly risking the roster bubble popping and forcing him to begin a preventable rebuild.
"Best player available" and "high-upside projects" aren't a bad approach to a draft; it's what brought the Lions the successes they've had. Holmes has definitely earned some trust and benefit of the doubt for that. But entering year six, a shift is needed. The foundation and core are already here with most extended, but they aren't getting younger.
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Seeing quarterback Jared Goff fight for his life behind the line of scrimmage with two guards who hadn't played an NFL game prior to this season should be a wake-up call. That the team of today needs to be taken care of just as much, if not more, than the team of tomorrow. Even if that means trading away premium draft capital for a proven veteran on the offensive line, at CB, or a pass rusher.
Holmes has proven that he can find elite talent in unexpected places, but his reluctance to aggressively tackle present-day needs by trusting too much in the development of mid-to-late round draft picks has led to the same old problems coming up time and time again. It's also beginning to create new ones, too.
No one is perfect at drafting. Not every pick will hit. Holmes is still one of the league's best drafters. However, the future of the Lions' Super Bowl contention can't be dependent on Holmes finding more diamonds in the rough when there are polished diamonds at positions of need readily available, either waiting for them at #17, free agency, or in the trade market. We've waited long enough.