The Detroit Lions have been plotting what moves to make when the NFL draft comes along in a few weeks, and one of the options is deciding to make a trade.
Detroit can either choose to move up or back, and they've been more inclined to go forward through the years under Brad Holmes. This year, though, the case can be made to move back and acquire more draft selections to patch various roster depth holes.
If the Lions are to move back, they have to do so carefully, because they have immediate needs that need to be patched by the addition of top flight players. Pro Football Focus had a new mock draft from Daire Carragher that has a dramatic shakeup for Detroit.
In the draft, the Lions deal back from pick No. 17 to pick No. 23, and select Georgia linebacker CJ Allen. It's a move Carragher believes would benefit the defense immediately given Allen's status and smarts.
"The Lions trade down six spots and draft a player they could have reasonably selected had they stayed put. Linebacker may not be the biggest need for Detroit, but this organization places a premium on high-character players who bring energy and enthusiasm."
"Allen wore the green dot on Kirby Smart’s defense, and coaches rave about his leadership ability. He has graded as an outstanding run defender over the past two seasons, earning PFF run-defense grades above 88.0 in each year."
In the deal, the Lions would miss out on drafting a safety, Oregon's Dillion Thienemen. Additionally, they would miss on offensive tackle Blake Miller from Clemson, and edge rusher Akheem Mesidor from Miami. A compelling case could be made to select any of those players given Detroit's needs.
As good as this deal may be from an asset addition standpoint, the fact is, the tackle and defensive end markets may fall off a cliff after day two. The Lions cannot afford to miss on those two positions, no matter how good of a player Allen might be and no matter how many picks it might net them.
Lions can't risk passing on two major positions of need by trading back
The deal doesn't show what picks the Lions would net in return for a modest trade backward, but it's safe to assume Detroit could pick up a third-round selection and maybe another middle round pick for a six spot swap.
For the Lions, the biggest question would be how much they value quantity rather than quality. If they were to stay put, they would likely get a better player at pick No. 17 than trading back. Going six spots backward would allow needy teams to jump ahead of Detroit for some comparable players, which would be a definite gamble for the Lions.
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Should the Lions decide to trade back, it would be smarter to not stray far from their original spot, and instead try to land a pick no later than spot No. 20. That would allow them a good chance to have access to a top player of need while also gaining a few more assets. With nine selections this year, the Lions aren't desperate for picks, so they can afford to stick to their guns.
Given Detroit's calm approach to free agency, there will be a need to target players that fill specific spots with future stars. The only way the Lions can do this is by sticking to their board and not operating in a risky fashion.