At this point, for better or worse, we know what Jared Goff is as a fantasy football quarterback. Play him at home if you can, and bench him on the road (outdoors) if at all possible. He finished as QB7 in fantasy last year (through Week 18), on the strength of over 4,500 passing yards and 30 touchdowns. He added two rushing touchdowns last year, but if he doesn't vulture scores he won't offer his fantasy managers anything on the ground.
Alas, despite that top-10 fantasy finish in 2023, Goff will typically come in much lower in 2024 preseason rankings.
Detractors will point to three finishes outside the top-20 fantasy quarterbacks in three of four weeks from Week 14-17 last season, and for that matter this year's schedule, with back-to-back outdoor road games in Week 16 and 17, as reasoning to be skeptical of his fantasy prospects. The comeback to the point about the end of this year's schedule is to take advantage of the good up to that point and cut bait.
Jared Goff makes unexpected list of fantasy quarterbacks
Via his big four-year contract extension this offseason, Goff is not going anywhere as the Lions' quarterback for the foreseeable future. Entering his age-30 season, he is pretty young in quarterback years and has about a good a situation as a quarterback can have.
The word "dynasty" in fantasy football terms has a youthful connotation. Building a roster that can win this year and ideally long-term, whether you've joined a startup this year or have been in a given dynasty league for years.
In the dynasty vacuum, Goff does not feel like a high-level fantasy asset. For most people anyway.
Derek Brown of Fantasy Pros recently produced a list of five quarterbacks who are draft values in superflex dynasty startups. With all of that as the root, and his ADP sitting at QB18 (No. 36 overall), Goff is third on the list.
"Jared Goff re-upped with Detroit for four years, with three years of good money on the contract. Goff is now tied to an offense for the next three years that ranked fifth in points per game, third in yards per play and sixth in red zone scoring attempts per game. Last year, Goff returned to the QB1 ranks as the QB11 in fantasy points per game. That was the third QB1 season he’s posted in his career. He looks primed to do it again. Last year, Goff ranked third in clean pocket passer rating, sixth in passer grade, 10th in yards per attempt and sixth in adjusted completion rate. The skill cupboards are stocked to the brim. Goff is set to smash again in Superflex as a QB1 in QB2 clothing."
-Derek Brown, Fantasy Pros
You could truly say Goff is tied to the Lions' offense for the next four seasons, counting this year as the final year of his previous contract. All his "clean pocket" numbers are generally well-known, as is the flipside drop-off that's starkly unique to him.
But relatively young, with very likely four years to come piloting a very good offense, Goff can be shaped as an asset in dynasty leagues. It's not that much of a stretch...