Jared Goff tumbles down PFF quarterback ranking for obvious reason

No matter what, Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff will have doubters. Having a big new contract in hand isn't going to change that, and that may only fuel those doubters if/when he struggles. League-wide quarterbacks rankings, in fantasy terms or otherwise, will probably never look on him too kindly regardless of the numbers he puts up.

Pro Football Focus is out with with a fresh ranking of NFL starting quarterbacks for the 2024 season. Patrick Mahomes is in a tier of his own at the top, and everyone else follows. If we're ranking on sheer talent, Goff gets knocked automatically compared to some of his peers. "Tier 4" in the rankings is a big tier, just outside the top-10, and Goff falls into it....

At No. 16.

"For as much as Goff was already an efficient, in-structure quarterback, he took that to an even higher level last season. His 85.2 passing grade in 2023 was the highest of his career, his 3.4% big-time throw percentage was the highest single-season number since his Rams days and his 2.4% turnover-worthy play percentage was a career low."

"Unfortunately, Goff's play under pressure and outside of structure continues to leave a lot to be desired when compared to other top NFL quarterbacks."

Jared Goff tumbles down PFF quarterback ranking for clear reason

Every quarterback has some drop-off in performance when pressured compared to when he's kept clean in the pocket. And Goff remains one of the best quarterbacks in the league against the blitz.

After the new of the contract came, Bryan Knowles of FTN Fantasy easily highlighted Goff in a recent piece about quarterbacks when they were pressured last season.

"We’ll start with Goff because he just got the oversized novelty check. In a clean pocket, Goff’s 60.4% DVOA was eighth in the league, in the same neighborhood as Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. When pressured, however, that fell all the way to -73.0%, which ranked 23rd and had him finish just ahead of Derek Carr and Mac Jones. That -133.4% drop was the eighth largest in the league, and the worst for anyone you could consider an established veteran starter; everyone above him was either very young, a backup, benched, or some combination of the three."

The idea that Goff goes from elite when he has a clean pocket to borderline unplayable when he's pressured is backed up by ample data, and it's nothing new. The drop-off being so drastic is not very common though.

As Knowles also noted, Goff's success against the blitz last season was really success against ineffective blitzes that didn't get home. That can be chalked up to his own recognition and savvy to get the ball out of his hands quickly, and of course having the best offensive line in the league protecting him.

Via FTN's charting data, Goff had the eighth-most passing yards in the league last year when pressured (749). But he also threw the second-most interceptions when pressured, seven, behind Sam Howell's 14. Howell was also sacked a league-high 65 times last season, to Goff's 30.

What Goff is and isn't as a quarterback is well-established by now. PFF putting him at No. 16 in their quarterback ranking feels very low, but they found a valid, data-backed reason to generally knock him down.