It's a well-worn narrative by now, but Jared Goff's home-road splits as the Detroit Lions quarterback stand out too much to ignore. Sure he'll have an occasionally have a productive game on the road to make a call to sit him in fantasy football look bad, but it's the exception that fortifies the rule.
In Week 7, the road version of Goff delivered as expected. He had a garbage time driven 284 passing yards against the Baltimore Ravens, and delivered a fantasy dud. In four road games this season, he has averaged 14.8 fantasy points per game (Yahoo! scoring). And that's with 22.4 fantasy points in Week 6 against the Buccaneers. At home, he's averaging 23.4 fantasy points per game (Yahoo! scoring).
Week 8 brings a home game for Goff and the Lions, against the Las Vegas Raiders. That sound you heard is his fantasy owners rejoicing at the idea of a big rebound after last week's dismal outing. The idea is easy, and well-founded.
Jared Goff is a riskier fantasy starter in Week 8 than you think
It's surprising to find the Raiders have a top-10 total yardage defense right now. A look at what they allow in terms of fantasy production tells a story though.
In Yahoo! scoring (0.5-point PPR), the Raiders are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. They are allowing the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers, and the 12th-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
The quarterbacks Las Vegas has faced have not exactly been high-end guys outside of Josh Allen and Justin Herbert. But the only teams below them in pass attempts allowed so far this season are teams that have played six games, while they've played seven. On the flipside, opposing running backs have the fifth-most rushing attempts in the league against them.
The Lions are 7.5-point favorites on Monday night as of the latest odds at FanDuel Sportsbook (odds subject to change). That reeks of a run-heavy game script late for them, and Goff's pass attempts being reduced in line with that.
After six teams were on bye in Week 7, there are no teams on bye this week. Goff is easy to just anoint as a "top-10 quarterback" in fantasy going against the Raiders at home, but there's a level of downside risk that should not be ignored.