Jared Goff had one of the best seasons of his career in 2022, which is undeniable even for those Lions' fans who think he'll be even better this year. From during Week 9 on, a span of nine-plus games that paralelled the Lions winning eight of their last 10, he did not throw an interception. He'll bring that streak of 324 straight pass attempts without an intercepton into this season.
Spurred by playing such clean football, and cleaning up at home especially, Goff finished as QB10 in fantasy last year. That's the second such finish of his career, and his third career finish as a fantasy QB1 (top-12).
Even if Goff doesn't regress much this year, a current top-five in league history streak of pass attempts without an interception all but promises fortune will correct and he will regress a bit. To predict regression for him in 2023 stretches toward being too obvious.
Jared Goff too easy to name as a fantasy football regression candidate for 2023
Tim Martens of Pro Football Network recently named some regression candidates at quarterback for this year. Goff is of course on the list, with clear-cut reasoning.
"I think Goff is still a great option for fantasy teams, but his totals in 2023 may be a bit more subdued. Detroit spent a high first-round pick on Alabama’s Jahmyr Gibbs and brought in former Chicago Bear David Montgomery in free agency to boost their rushing attack. On top of this, Detroit finished with the third-highest-scoring offense in the league in 2022.- Tim Martens, PFN
This isn’t a case of Goff necessarily getting worse. It’s more a case of 2022 being so good that regression is the more likely outcome. Goff is still a great quarterback for your fantasy teams, but I wouldn’t put the odds on another top-10 season."
Even gentle regression would be in line to drop Goff out of the top-10 fantasy quarterbacks this year. As Martens reinforced, it's the more likely outcome than a repeat of last year or an improvement from it.
It's not a huge knock on him, or revolutionary, to say Goff is a prime regression candidate this year. And in fantasy terms, he'll still be plenty good if deployed properly.