By the numbers: What would a breakout season for Jameson Williams look like?

Since last season ended, with him scoring two touchdowns in the NFC Championship Game, Jameson Williams has gotten plenty of buzz for a breakout season this year. Tentacles of that have placed importance on training camp for him, or placed a little bit of "we need to see it" skepticism on him actually having a breakout third season.

The Lions have done everything to put opportunity in front of Williams. No notable wide receivers, i.e. threats to his role as the WR2, have been added. By all accounts he made great progress during OTAs, and he's expected to carry that through training camp and right to the season.

Still, the idea of Williams having a breakout season has remained somewhat vague. We know what it will look like on the field: few if any dropped passes, explosive downfield plays the likes of which no one else in the Lions' offense can provide, a more refined receiver. And it doesn't even have to come with a ton of volume each and every week.

What kind of numbers will constitute a breakout season for Jameson Williams in 2024?

In 18 career regular season games, Williams has 25 catches for 395 yards and three touchdowns. Project his final three games last season over 17 games, and you get 62 receptions (on 91 targets) for 901 yards.

Responding to a mailbag question in his last post for the Detroit News, Justin Rogers (now of Detroit Football Network) naturally named Williams as the second or third-year Lions' player who he thinks will make the biggest jump this year.

Rogers finished the response with a stat projection for Williams.

"If he stays healthy, I could easily see more than 800 yards and six to eight touchdowns, essentially doubling his production through his first two seasons."

Essentially doubling his production from his first two seasons would include around 50 receptions for Williams this year.

So let's say he has something like 50 catches for 800 yards (16 yards per catch), give or take a few catches and/or 10-20 yards, and six touchdowns. That would be a fine, notable step in his third season, and remove a lot of questions about him that exist right now. Which is the overriding theme of this season for Williams, to be healthy and take a big step toward proving why the Lions traded up for him in the 2022 draft.

What would constitute a breakout season for Williams this year is very subjective. But there has to be a statistical line drawn somewhere, and 50 catches for 800 yards and a half-dozen touchdowns feels like where it should sit. More than that in one or more categories would be great, while notably less than that (in catches and yards) would be a disappointment.

With that (50 receptions, 800 yards, six touchdowns) as the breakout threshold for Williams this year....what are the chances he does that-or more? I'll put it at 52 percent.