The Los Angeles Rams have been the best team in the NFL this season.
Los Angeles is currently 10-3 and holds the No. 1 seed in the NFC. They’re currently one of two teams in the NFL to rank in the top five in both points scored and points allowed per game.
The only other team to do that is the Seattle Seahawks, who the Rams are currently locked in a dogfight with for the NFC West title but currently have the edge after getting a 21-19 win over Seattle in Week 11.
The Rams have been a juggernaut. Quarterback Matthew Stafford is having one of the best years of his career throwing to Puka Nacua and Davante Adams and Los Angeles has three studs in Byron Young, Jared Verse and Colbie Turner on its vaunted defensive line.
Los Angeles has obviously had great players on its offense throughout the Sean McVay era, but what is particularly interesting is the personnel McVay has deployed this year.
Los Angeles currently runs 13 personnel (one running back, three tight ends, one receiver), on 21.36% of its offensive plays, the highest such mark in the NFL by a considerable margin. The second-highest usage of 13 personnel is the Pittsburgh Steelers at 16.57% and the league average is 5.25%.
The Rams currently have 34.39 estimated points added when running 13 personnel. The Buffalo Bills are second at 16.36. It’s one of the more unique offensive approaches we’ve seen in the NFL this decade.
Not many teams have been able to stop the Rams when they get heavy this year. But the Detroit Lions might be as well-equipped as anyone.
Lions are well-matched against 13 personnel deployed often by Rams
As heavy as the Rams like to get on offense, the Lions are prepared to match it on defense. They run more base defense (either a 3-4 or 4-3 set opting for a third linebacker instead of a third defensive back) than any other team in the league, doing so on 60.77% of defensive snaps.
The Rams’ tight end trio of Colby Parkinson, Davis Allen and Terrance Ferguson is a versatile bunch that has allowed Los Angeles to still present the threat of the pass even when 13 personnel is usually the obvious indicator of a run play.
And as you might predict with such heavy personnel on the field, the Rams’ rushing attack has been effective overall, tying for the eighth-best yards per carry in the NFL at 4.7. Kyren Williams and Blake Corum are both powerful runners who thrive in the condensed sets the Rams love to run.
“A lot of this under center run gives them a chance to really lean on you a little bit, “ Campbell said. “That's where a lot of it has changed, is there's more of a concerted effort in the run game to apply pressure on you. I think that gives some of those receivers a break.”
Los Angeles has continued using 13 personnel at a high rate even with top tight end Tyler Higbee on injured reserve since Week 12.
The use of 13 personnel also forces other teams to match the heavy set with more linebackers and down linemen so they don’t get bulldozed in the running game. It makes defenses much more predictable and easier for an offensive wiz like McVay to plan for.
“Normally, you know what you're going to get [when running 13 personnel],” Campbell said. “Sometimes in 12 [personnel], you don't know if you're going to get nickel or base defense. So, that's another reason. They know what they're going to attack, right? They know, probably, the defense, the fronts, the coverages. That helps.”
Detroit’s linebacker trio of Jack Campbell, Alex Anzalone and Derrick Barnes is one of the best in the NFL. Campbell has broken out as arguably the best middle linebacker in the sport this year, Anzalone is elite in coverage while being a sure tackler and Barnes’ combination of pass rush ability, run defense and coverage make him one of the league’s most versatile defenders.
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The big loss for Detroit, however, is do-it-all safety Brian Branch, whose ability to play up in the box or as a deep safety made defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard much more comfortable with leaving his linebackers out there. Branch’s achilles tear last week will make it much harder for the Lions to live in their base defense to the extent they do, but they will likely have no choice against Los Angeles.
The Lions’ linebackers will have to be up to the task both covering the Rams’ tight ends and crashing down against the run if Detroit wants to pull off the upset. And without Branch and likely Kerby Joseph, their cornerback play from D.J. Reed and Rock Ya-Sin will need to be the best it’s been all season against one of the best receiving duos in the NFL.
Nacua is tied for the most catches in the NFL with 93 and is second in the league with 1,186 receiving yards along with six touchdowns this year. Adams has been a touchdown magnet, with 56 catches for 718 yards and a league high 14 touchdowns. (No one else is in double digits yet)
Because only one receiver is on the field, and it’s usually Adams, that’s allowed the Rams to keep Nacua fresh. That’s proven extremely valuable for a player as physical as Nacua who has a propensity for getting banged up.
Detroit also runs the highest man coverage rate in the NFL at 43.9% of passing plays. It’s a philosophy that trusts the players above all else to win against the guy in front of them. But the freedom that Branch’s hyper-versatility provides Detroit to do that will be tough to replace, and the Lions are arguably without their most valuable defensive player for the rest of the year.
This is the ultimate game to watch if you’re a fan of two teams putting their biggest guys at the line and seeing who lives to tell the tale. And it’ll also be huge in seeing just what Detroit does on defense without Branch.
Will they still run their base defense on most plays? Against an offense like this, they may have to. And though it’ll be an uphill battle to beat the NFL’s best team on the road, the Lions have the linebackers to match what the Rams want to do. The game could be decided by that matchup.
“Very good team, playing at a very high level,” Campbell said of the Rams. “So, we’ve got to play better. We’ve got to play better to beat this team that we're getting ready to face. And we will. We can do that.”