In each of the last four seasons, Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff has finished as a top-10 quarterback in fantasy (through Week 18). He's also done so, other than two rushing scores in 2023 to offer a very slight boost, without the cheat code/value add that is rushing production for a quarterback.
The other two quarterbacks who have been top-10 fantasy signal callers in each of the last four years, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts, obviously cannot claim that last part regarding rushing production,
In line with thoughts about the Lions' ceiling with him as the quarterback, a lot of fantasy managers and analysts do not see a whole lot of upside with Goff year-in and year-out. With the entirety of his production tied to his passing, and thus subject to any randomness that may occur there--particularly when it comes to touchdowns--the rationale for that thought process is sound.
But there are lines to that logic. Many fantasy analysts will say, rightly and essentially, "there are no undraftable players, just undraftable ADPs." As in, where a player has to be taken in a fantasy draft is what makes him undraftable for them, not the player himself.
Jared Goff is set to again be the poster boy for a certain fantasy draft strategy
There are multiple ways to skin the proverbial cat in fantasy football. The template for success starts on draft day, and those who are flexible will come out ahead. Maybe the board falls in such a way you end up going running back-heavy early (how old school, though that is sort of coming back). Maybe you end up loading up at wide receiver in the first handful of rounds.
With the teeth of this year's draft fantasy season basically upon us now, Bleacher Report's Gary Davenport recently honed in on the biggest bargains in each NFL division.
Goff, with an ADP of QB16 and 109th overall (actually 110th overall as of his writing), is Davenport's best draft bargain in the NFC North.
"Last year, only Matthew Stafford of the Los Angeles Rams had more passing yards than the 4,564 that Jared Goff amassed. Goff was also second with 34 touchdown passes. He was sixth in fantasy points at the position."
"And yet, Goff is being drafted outside the top-15 fantasy quarterbacks, because logic."
The logic Davenport cited was fully rooted out by Ian Hartitz, then of Fantasy Life.
"Goff's utter lack of a rushing floor will continue to make him cheap in drafts and cause fantasy nerds to claim he has 'no upside,'" Hartitz wrote. "Well, Goff has eight top-5 finishes during the last two seasons, which literally only trails Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow. That's it. That's the entire list. I'd say the man is pretty capable of putting up big point totals! Goff is (again) an underrated late-round/second-QB option ESPECIALLY in leagues that reward more than four points for passing touchdowns."
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Leaving aside how I don't appreciate being called a fantasy nerd, I'm also not the only one who would say Goff lacks upside. He can also be incredibly inconsistent week-to-week, largely dependent on game script, and it's worth noting how easy the Lions' schedule is this year.
That said, Goff is as likely to finish as a top-10 fantasy quarterback this year as anyone else. He is also one of few of that ilk who comes at the discount price he does on draft day, and that's likely to pretty much hold up.
For those fantasy managers who end up waiting to draft a quarterback, with taking two then a natural order, Goff is lined up to be a solid part of that strategy once again.
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