Entering Week 5, the Detroit Lions have a top-five fantasy scorer at quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end. While that's not a surprise, an awful defense has created high-scoring environments every week and the requisite fantasy gold.
With how Kelvin Sheppard's defense looks, and a real lack of viable answers to fix it, the Lions' offense is sure to continue to have to keep pace. And if the issues it has had get cleaned up, look out.
Any fantasy manager who rosters Goff or a key Lions' skill position player, this side of Jameson Williams anyway, has to be happy with the results so far. But those who drafted Williams knew, or should have known based on an established history, exactly what they were getting.
Two Lions stars land in inexplicable category of fantasy assets
Among his five players to sell high on in fantasy heading into Week 5, Nathan Jahnke of Pro Football Focus has two Lions: Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta.
"Gibbs was everything fantasy managers hoped for over the first three weeks, with six touchdowns, at least 100 scrimmage yards each game and at least five receptions. Week 4 was the first game he wasn’t elite, with 15 carries for 46 yards and a touchdown along with four catches for 31 yards."
"While Gibbs is still a must-start player and top-five option over the rest of the season, it’s worth noting his schedule is the second-worst for running backs over the rest of the season. The four teams he’s faced are among the top-six teams in allowing fantasy points to running backs this season, although part of that is because they’ve each faced Gibbs. Still, three of the four rank among the bottom eight in PFF run-defense grade."
The bar is obviously very high for Gibbs, but he literally just had his worst fantasy performance of the season in Week 4 and he needed a touchdown to make it look more passable. So if a fantasy manager who has him did somehow feel compelled to trade him, they would not be selling high right now.
Outside of Week 7 against the Green Bay Packers and Week 9 against the Miami Dolphins, Gibbs' rest-of-season schedule does look difficult. But it's not like his fantasy managers are benching him for anything other than a bye week or an injury absence, so the whole premise of trading him falls apart. You'd have to get an elite running back in return, as Jahnke acknowledged.
"The talent will outweigh the matchup more often than not, but if you’re able to trade him for another elite running back with a better schedule, that’s a deal I’d be willing to make. It is worth mentioning that the Lions' two favorable matchups are over the next five weeks, so it could also make sense to hold onto Gibbs for a month, and then make a trade a few weeks before fantasy trade deadlines."
Unlike Gibbs, LaPorta had his best game of the season in Week 4 (eight receptions for 84 yards and a touchdown). However, Jahnke noted how he played a season-low snap share, rooted in oddly ceding snaps to Brock Wright in 11 personnel, which yielded a season-low route participation rate.
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"The reduced workload ultimately didn’t hurt LaPorta’s fantasy production because Detroit spent most of the game passing", Jahnke wrote, "leading to four Lions players finishing with at least 70 receiving yards. However, if the Lions’ defense improves and Detroit doesn’t need to pass as frequently in future games, the reduced route participation could diminish LaPorta’s fantasy value."
"The Lions also have a rough schedule for tight ends, with five games against top-four teams in preventing fantasy points to the position, including two during the fantasy playoffs."
The idea the Lions' defense could improve enough to notably reduce the offense's overall passing volume is laughable right now. It really can't get much worse, but the path to it getting better to an extent the offense will throw markedly less is hard to see. And that leaves aside how thin tight end can be in fantasy....so what would you be trading LaPorta for?
When it comes to making moves, fantasy managers should never rule anything completely out. But it's hard to see how a Gibbs or LaPorta owner would benefit from trading them, within the premise of "selling high" or not. Unless Gibbs could be moved in a 2-for-1 deal that included getting a high-end running back, as well as a notable upgrade at another position, a fair return in a trade for either guy is unlikely.
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