Through four games this season, the Detroit Lions' defense has been as bad as it gets. The core of that is the pass defense, where no coverage or pass rush approach is working. As was the case under his predecessor, defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard is struggling to marry pass rush and coverage in an effective way.
The Lions' pass rush has actually been fairly effective from a broad view, but swiss cheese pass coverage is allowing quarterbacks to get the ball out before it bothers them. If Sheppard calls a blitz, that leaves coverage vulnerable. Sit back, and the lackluster coverage get manipulated and picked apart.
Sheppard is not without flaw, but the deck is also stacked against him to a large degree. The upcoming return of safety Brian Branch will help, but he can't cover all of the ills in the secondary.
Lions' blitz-heavy tendencies probably need to stop
Through Week 4, according to Pro Football Reference, the Lions have the ninth-highest blitz rate in the league (30.5 percent). They are also allowing the most air yards in the league, overall and on completions, which checks out based on what we've seen. There has been a lot of what opposing offenses would call "air" in the Lions' pass defense.
There are no easy or obvious answers to fix the Lions' defense this season. In the things he "thinks" column entering Week 5, ESPN's Ben Solak declared it.
"I think ... the Lions' defense has no immediate solution."
"The one-sentence explanation of the Lions' defense under Kelvin Sheppard is their belief that pressure will hide their coverage deficiencies. Since the start of last season, the Lions are seventh in team pressure rate as a defense by Next Gen Stats' model."
In light of the defense's feeble effort in Week 4 against the Carolina Panthers and quarterback Bryce Young, Solak offered a sobering note.
"There are 1,063 games in the Next Gen Stats database (since 2016) in which a quarterback was pressured on at least 40% of his dropbacks. Young's game against the Lions, by dropback EPA, is the ninth-best game in that sample."
Solak also noted how, per Next Gen Stats, the Lions are allowing 109.3 net passing yards per game on pressured dropbacks this season. The next-highest team is at 65.3.
As the sample size for the season gets larger, some of these markedly lackluster pass defense numbers for Lions will improve. How much is a legit question though, and Solak used a perfect analogy to describe the situation.
READ MORE: How Brian Branch's return can (slightly) change the outlook for the Lions' defense
"With this much personnel deficiency in the defensive backfield, the return of Brian Branch (Achilles) off the physically unable to perform list will be like plugging a leak in a cheese grater. There's more holes on the other side."
It's easy to just say the Lions need to adjust/reduce their blitz rate. The reason for blitzing so much is clear, and Solak spotlighted it.
"The Lions don't blitz because they trust their five or six remaining defenders in coverage -- they blitz to try to force the ball out hot, so the quarterback doesn't have time to exploit those defenders."
Sheppard is surely being called on by head coach Dan Campbell to make changes to what he's doing.
Blitzing less might be at the core of those adjustments, and it makes a level of sense. How much it will actually help, when the pass coverage has been so overmatched and feeble, is the question.
Blitzing differently might be the answer, with overloads to one side, different looks in terms of showing who's coming or different players called on to do it, but it's hard to see that being much of a solution.
It's one thing for Lions fans and followers to think the defense is unfixable this season. When a national analyst has effectively thrown up his hands too, any attempt to deflect blame from that side of the ball falls flat.
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