Using Week 18 as the end point, three quarterbacks have finished as a top-10 fantasy quarterback in each of the last four years. You probably guessed Josh Allen easily, and Jalen Hurts might've been another easy guess.
Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff is the third, without what Allen and Hurts produce with their legs. Goff, as usual, is not getting the requisite respect in fantasy drafts this year. Via Fantasy Pros, his current ADP is QB16. Fantasy Football Calculator has him at QB14.
Goff's consistency as a top-10 fantasy finisher hides the week-to-week inconsistency that makes it hard for fantasy managers to confidently start him. Without rushing production to provide some kind of weekly floor, he's more game script dependent than a lot of quarterbacks and the ease of the Lions' schedule this year is a notable red flag.
Fantasy analyst goes (kind of) big with a Jared Goff take
On the latest episode of "Fantasy Football World", the four co-hosts picked dark horses to be the highest-scoring fantasy player at their position. The criteria was an ADP outside the top-10 at his position, and co-host Brian Johnson went with Goff as his dark horse to finish as the QB1.
"The lack of mobility will hurt him, but I think Jared Goff still has a shot to finish as QB1 overall", Johnson said. "The Lions did lose their starting center, Cade Mays. That hurts....but (that might mean) maybe more shotgun (while Mays is out) for Goff, who has elite weapons in Amon-Ra St. Brown, we know that, but who's to say Jameson Williams is not the top wide receiver for the Lions this year?"
After a Williams rebuttal from co-host Paul Charchian, Johnson continued.
"We're just looking at shootouts galore for the Lions, who have 11 of their final 13 games in a dome. Their defense is dog water. They have the easiest schedule in the NFL. I just think they're slinging it all day, every week. So Jared Goff, darkhorse QB1."
Over last four seasons, through Week 18, the QB1 in fantasy has averaged 412 fantasy points.
Allen, who was the QB1 in 2023 and last year, was greatly aided by 15 and 14 rushing touchdowns in those seasons.
Lamar Jackson, the QB1 in 2024, did a lot or work with his arm that year (41 passing touchdowns, 4,172 yards through the air). But, of course, he also ran for 915 yards with four more scores on the ground.
Patrick Mahomes, the QB1 in 2022, also had a big year passing (5,250 yards and 41 touchdowns). But he also had more than 350 rushing yards with four touchdowns on the ground.
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Goff has topped 100 yards rushing once in a season once in his career, with two rushing touchdowns over the last five seasons. So if he's going to finish as the QB1 in fantasy, he's going to do it almost entirely on the strength of his passing, with the faint hope he vultures a goal line rushing touchdown or two.
So what might that look like? Let's go with 400 fantasy points as the bench mark, and assume typical quarterback scoring (four points per passing touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards).
- 45 passing touchdowns=180 fantasy points
- 5,000 passing yards=200 fantasy points
- 45 rushing yards=4.5 fantasy points
- 3 rushing touchdowns=18 fantasy points
The above is a total of 402.5 fantasy points. The passing yardage and touchdown numbers would also be career-highs for Goff by a fair margin, along with, as mentioned, more rushing touchdowns than he has had since he became a Lion. But that is the path for him to finish as the QB1 this year.
It's possible to buy into Goff's fantasy outlook this year, and see him as a value pick in drafts once again, without expecting him to do (or lightly predicting he could do) things he has never done before. Even with the noted "dark horse QB1" caveat, that's essentially what Johnson did here.
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