ESPN analyst plays role of Buzz Killington on Lions trade for Za'Darius Smith

An ESPN analytics guy dove deep to find a red flag in the Lions' acquisition of Za'Darius Smith.
Nick Cammett/GettyImages
facebooktwitterreddit

The Detroit Lions got Tuesday's NFL trade deadline day action rolling by getting the long-speculated deal to acquire defensive end Za'Darius Smith from the Cleveland Browns done.

The reviews of the trade from Detroit's end have been glowing (h/t to Pride of Detroit for a compilation), with immediate grades generally somewhere on the "A" scale.

Tat doesn't mean there aren't potential concerns with Smith. Even though he's still getting it done this season, he is 32 years old. His missed tackle rate (according to Pro Football Focus) has spiked dramatically the last couple seasons.

That said, the Lions are taking practically no risk to acquire Smith. They're paying him $605,000 for the rest of this season with no firm financial commitment for 2025, the last year of his contract.

ESPN analyst decides to be a buzz-killington to Lions getting Za'Darius Smith

ESPN analytics guy Seth Walder is grading NFL trades for both teams as they come in. For the Smith trade, he gave the Lions a B+ and the Browns a B.

Walder noted the Lions need to make a move after Aidan Hutchinson went down, along with the bigger picture of them being a Super Bowl favorite right now as an extra impetus to add a pass rusher. But in-between those sentiments, he went the buzzkill route.

"Smith's 2.7% sack rate is near his career high, but there is one large red flag: His pass rush win rate is down at 10%, under half of the 21% he recorded in the same defense last season and well below his 16% career average (since 2017). Considering his age (32), that gives me real pause."

ESPN defines their pass rush win rate as "how often a pass rusher is able to beat his block within 2.5 seconds." Smith's decline by more than 50 percent there compared to last year feels notable, but other metrics show he's doing just fine getting after the quarterback so far this season. Sacks can be random, but Smith already has five this year after totaling 5.5 over 16 games for the Browns last season with the pass rush win rate Walder noted.

There's always going to be one somewhere. But while everyone else gives the Lions rightful flowers for getting a long-speculated deal for Smith done, Walder lands firmly as the Buzz Killington.

feed