The Detroit Lions are not participating in the playoffs for the first time since 2022, but the vibe after that non-playoff season is far different from where things are now. Expectations were not met this season, and noticeable changes should be coming as long as those in key positions of authority in the football operation are open to it.
Until we see what is done this offseason, it's fair to wonder if there will be much of a pivot from the "Phase 1" status quo that seems to have reached it's peak.
One big difference from 2024 to 2025 for the Lions was one-score games. In 2024, on their way to 15 wins, they were 7-2 in one-score games. This season, they were just 3-5. It's always a thin line between a win and a loss in those kind of games, and the Lions seemed to find ways to come up short this season.
Stat which 'defined' Lions' 2025 season confirms issue that isn't going away
Brad Gagnon of Bleacher Report has offered one stat that defined the 2025 season for each NFL team. For the Lions, the stat points right back to the aforementioned difference in one-score games.
"Jared Goff's 67.1 passer rating in the fourth quarter of one-score games, which was the third-lowest mark among 24 quarterbacks who threw at least 50 passes under those circumstances. The Lions executed just one fourth-quarter comeback all season and went 3-5 in one-score games. There's something missing when it matters."
Looking at things in a positive fashion, Goff's numbers when the Lions were trailing late in games (less than four minutes left, and less than two minutes left) were better this year than in 2024. The team was also trailing in those situations more often this season, as reflected by Goff's increase in pass attempts in those circumstances.
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Goff's raw numbers this season, especially considering how poorly the Lions' offensive line performed in several games, look pretty good. While every quarterback operates at his best with things are pristine, Goff's performance uniquely drops off when circumstances are less than ideal.
Those circumstances includes when the Lions are operating with a lead, the run game is rolling and the play-action passing game is fully functioning. All of those things occurred less often this season, which wasn't always in Goff's control or his fault.
But Gagnon's final point when citing Goff's passer rating in the fourth quarter of one-score games this season spotlights something that's fair to wonder, if you don't see him with Honolulu Blue-shaded glasses. Perhaps it is best-framed as a question.
What is the ceiling with Jared Goff as your quarterback? It's clear he is not an elevating force who can regularly make things happen in critical moments, or in big games, by the sheer will of his talent.
The Lions have cast their lot with Goff for the foreseeable future though, since he is under contract through 2028. Some kind of contract adjustment/extension is probably coming this offseason too, in order to reduce his massive upcoming salary cap numbers.