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Cap expert basically nailed projection of Jahmyr Gibbs' monster contract extension

Jahmyr Gibbs has received his bag now, and a salary cap expert pretty much nailed it down to the (relative) penny.
Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs
Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

It was only a matter of time before it was finalized, and that time was Thursday late-afternoon/early evening. As first reported by ESPN's Adam Schefter, the Detroit Lions and running back Jahmyr Gibbs have agreed to a three-year, $67.5 million contract extension.

Per Schefter, Gibbs' new contract has a max value of $75.75 million and includes $51.5 million in guaranteed money.

Gibbs is now the highest-paid running back in the NFL by every measure, as expected after the deal the Atlanta Falcons gave running back Bijan Robinson earlier in the week.

Every dollar, or quarter or half-a-million dollars in this case, counts in the battle to draw the coveted highest-paid (insert position someone plays) label, for however long it lasts. And the Lions, as expected, have locked down another of their core players long-term.

If nothing else, the Lions let the Falcons set the bar they had to exceed by not being the first to get their stud running back signed to an extension. A reactionary position will always cost a team little bit more than it could've otherwise, and ESPN's Ben Solak quickly outlined the slim margin Gibbs has exceeded Robinson by to become the highest-paid running back in the league.

Salary cap guru pretty much nailed projection of Jahmyr Gibbs' contract extension

After news of the $22 million per year contract extension the Indianapolis Colts have given running back Jonathan Taylor came out on Thursday morning, adding to the urgency around a new deal getting done for Gibbs, Michael Ginnitti of Spotrac took a run at predicting the deal the anointed bell cow of the Lions' offense would get using the site's projection model.

"With new deals for Bijan Robinson ($22.25M) and Jonathan Taylor ($22M) on the books, the focus now turns solely to #Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs."

"The 24-year-old now projects toward a 3-year, $68.5M extension according to our model."

READ MORE: Lions next move after massive Jahmyr Gibbs extension could not be clearer

Leaving aside the max possible value of $75.5 million, available via incentives or escalators that aren't yet known so soon after news of the deal, Ginnitti missed the base reported total value of Gibbs' new contract by $1 million, or $333,333 per year ($22.83 million per year vs. the actual $22.5 million).

Maybe Gibbs' agent tried to get a contract that was exactly aligned with Ginnitti's projection, which would have been fair. Maybe a compromise was reached, via a very attainable incentive that would allow Gibbs to get that extra $1 milliion practically as if it were guaranteed to him at signing.

Still, as contract predictions/projections go, it's hard to do better than Ginnitti did here.

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