The Chicago Bears have never had a quarterback throw for 4,000 passing yards or more in a season.
It's a factoid that sounds more and more improbable as the years have gone on. 4,000 passing yard seasons have become increasingly common in today's NFL, thanks to the 21st-century passing boom. With a 17th game now on the schedule, QBs have more opportunities than ever to pad their stats and reach certain milestones.
While every other team has had a QB reach 4,000 passing yards, with nine of them also seeing a 5,000-yard season, the Bears are still chasing 4,000. On Sunday, versus the Detroit Lions, they will get a crack at history.
Bears QB Caleb Williams is currently sitting at 3,730 passing yards. With 270 on Sunday, the former #1 overall draft pick will be the first Bears QB to hit 4,000. If Williams succeeds, the longest team drought without a 4,000-yard passer falls to the New York Jets, who have been waiting since Joe Namath's 4,007-yard season in 1967. It's up to Kelvin Sheppard and the Lions' defense to spoil the party in Chicago and bring Jets fans a sigh of relief.
On the season, Williams is averaging 233.1 passing yards per game, well short of the 270 needed. In his 33 career games, Williams has surpassed 270 yards eight times. Williams has reached 270 passing yards four times this season, and four times total at home in Chicago.
In Williams' three games against the Lions, he's averaged just shy of 270 with 265.7 yards per game. Williams' high against the Lions was a 334-yard effort the last time he welcomed the Lions to Chicago in a 34-17 Lions win. Williams played from behind throughout that game, having 198 yards at halftime, after the Lions led 20-0 early in the second quarter.
For the Lions to end their disappointing season on a high note, they'll need a similar result. Well, with the exception of Williams throwing for over 300 passing yards.
Can the Lions' secondary stop Williams?
With the way the Lions' defense has played this season, 270 passing yards feels like nothing. So it's a surprise to learn that the Lions did not give up 270 yards to a QB until Week 12 against the Jameis Winston-led Giants, who threw for 366 yards in a high-scoring overtime game. Since then, Dak Prescott and Matthew Stafford blew past that mark with 300-plus yard games of their own.
Overall, the Lions have allowed 234.7 passing yards per game. Yes, that does account for Max Brosmer's horrid 51-yard effort in a win against the even more horrendous Lions offense on Christmas Day. That Lions' average was 246.9 yards before Christmas.
Worth noting that these numbers are pure passing yards, and not net passing yards, which subtracts the yards lost on a sack from the total passing yards. The Lions average 218.1 net passing yards given up, but in this context, net passing is irrelevant. As long as Williams reaches 270 passing yards, his place in Bears' history is secured, even if the Lions sack him ten plus times to bring his net yardage to 170.
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The then-healthy Lions' defense did well to keep Williams in check in Week 2. Williams only mustered up 207 passing yards -- his fifth-lowest total all season.
But that was then, this is now. Williams is coming off a 330-yard game against the San Francisco 49ers, with the Bears' offense under new head coach Ben Johnson fully clicking. Meanwhile, the injury-ridden Lions have stumbled, allowing 276.8 yards per game from that Winston game onward. Remove that Brosmer game on Christmas, and that average balloons to 322 yards.
Both teams are expected to go all out on Sunday. Lions head coach Dan Campbell was never going to rest players, while the Bears will also be competing for the #2 seed in the upcoming playoffs. There will still be variables that could limit Williams. If the game gets too out of hand quickly in either direction, the Bears may pull Williams short of 4,000 yards as the playoffs matter more than regular-season history. It's also expected to be below freezing and windy in Chicago, which could steer play-calling into a run-centric game plan.
Regardless of the end result, the Bears will still get the last laugh as the new reigning NFC North champions. The Lions have the opportunity to remain a thorn in their side by preventing Bears history, knocking them from the #2 seed, and ensuring they know that, despite their success, they still couldn't beat Detroit. That's why both teams are playing to win on Sunday.