Breaking down how the Lions could plan to extend Brian Branch's contract

The Detroit Lions have what many call champagne problems. Too many good players deserving of big paydays and not enough money to go around to extend every one of them.

With Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, D.J. Reed, Kerby Joseph, Derrick Barnes, Aidan Hutchinson, and Alim McNeill all under contract on significant veteran contracts, they now face the prospect of having to extend their historic 2023 draft class over the next 12-24 months.

We have considered what an extension could look like for Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta and Jack Campbell. Now, the last of what I have dubbed "The Big Four" is Brian Branch.

Brian Branch's production with the Lions

Since entering the NFL in 2023, Branch has a forced incompletion rate of just under 17 percent, and a defensive stop rate of just under 11 percent to go along with 26 splash plays (defined as tackles for loss, sacks and forced fumbles). This is all per Pro Football Focus. That's an impressive resume.

I looked for similar profiles of safeties who have signed contracts since 2020 for the three years leading up to their contracts. Here are the three closest comps I could find:

First off, this shows just how good Branch is. Even his closest comps don't touch him. But also, it's good company to keep. The average of their cap-adjusted APYs is $21.38 million. If Branch merely got that average, it would make him the second-highest paid safety in the NFL, less than $200k/year ahead of his running mate Kerby Joseph, but still almost $4 million behind Kyle Hamilton of the Baltimore Ravens for the pole position.

The two comps that make the most sense to compare Branch to are Hamilton in the lead-up to his 2025 contract and Winfield. Let's look at the three players using a larger set of data.

Branch holds up to the other two across the board and outshines them in some key areas. Part of why Hamilton and Winfield were able to cash in was because they can play everywhere, logging significant snaps in the slot, in the box, and up top while also playing around five percent of the time on the line.

Branch matches that criterion, having played seven percent of his snaps on the line, 23 percent in the box, 25 percent up top, and 42 percent in the slot. He's a defensive chess piece who can move around the defense to put out fires and make plays.

The Winfield comp is extremely apt in my opinion. Both are former second-round picks on the smaller side who can do everything asked of them.

If Branch simply asked for the Winfield contract adjusted for this year's cap, it would place his APY at $24.7 million, which would place him under $500k off of Hamilton. That close, Branch and his team would likely just push for the distinction of the highest-paid safety and work to get $25.25 million/year on a four-year deal, putting the total extension at $101 million.

If the Lions were to pursue that deal this year, the total effective deal would be five years and $106,767,000 with an effective APY of $21,353,400. Hamilton's total guarantees completely outpace the rest of the field, and given how Detroit structured Kerby Joseph's deal, I doubt they come close to matching it.

All of this is predicated on the assumption the Lions are willing to invest over $40 million per year into the safety position. That's a bold assumption, but would Detroit be willing to let Branch walk simply because they already locked up Joseph. Only time will tell.