When the Detroit Lions lost the NFC Championship Game to the San Francisco 49ers in January of 2024, head coach Dan Campbell spoke plainly to suggest "this may have been our only shot" to get to or win a Super Bowl. Getting back to the conference title game, or beyond, is undeniably a tough task.
With a loss in the Divisional Round as the No. 1 seed in the NFC the following year to missing the playoffs last season, the Lions have thus far manifested Campbell's words. It's worth wondering if he, via not being able to hide how he feels or mince words to reflect how he's feeling in a given moment, has embedded something in the team's psyche with his "only shot" comment.
Of course there is a more narrow question the Lions may have to start considering, and those that bring it up are likely to be dismissed as a hater.
What is the Lions' ceiling with Jared Goff as the starting quarterback?
Analyst stokes tough conversation about the Lions with Jared Goff under center
Early in this offseason, Brad Gagnon of Bleacher Report summed up Lions' fans fears with one sentence.
"With zero playoff wins in the last two seasons, it's fair to wonder if something is missing here, and if big changes are necessary despite all of that talent."
As for what might be missing, Gagnon later pointed to one player when highlighting one stat that defined the Lions' 2025 season.
"Jared Goff's 67.1 passer rating in the fourth quarter of one-score games, which was the third-lowest mark among 24 quarterbacks who threw at least 50 passes under those circumstances. The Lions executed just one fourth-quarter comeback all season and went 3-5 in one-score games. There's something missing when it matters."
Those who dare to see any kind flaw with Goff will draw ire from a strong segment of Lions' fans. He's a different quarterback now than he was then, but Los Angeles Rams' head coach Sean McVay recognized he could not win a Super Bowl with Goff and pivoted away as soon as it made sense.
On Tuesday's edition of "PFT Live", Mike Florio and Chris Simms discussed how the Lions take the next step after a disappointing season.
As Simms brought up how Goff has flourished in recent years, Florio wondered how long he'll be the Lions' quarterback.
Simms talked about how Goff's game should age well, before getting toward Florio's inquiry.
" I don’t think he’s gonna lose his arm,” Simms said. “He’s big. His game is not gonna be predicated on movement anyway, so him losing a step — who gives a damn if, you know, you didn’t really have a step to begin with in that way. I don’t think the skills are going to decline in a way where we’re gonna go, ‘Oh gosh, it’s time to move on."
"It’s just gonna be, ‘Hey, can they get over the hump? Can they win some of these big games? Can he play big in those big games? Do they get tired of him if they can’t quite get over the hump with him, even though we know that city loves him?’ But I don’t see the end coming any time soon.”
Florio took the baton.
"When you are knocking softly on the door every year, there is a fatigue that sets in" Florio said. “At some point, the fanbase will say, ‘If we’re ever going to get the thing we’re trying to get, we have to upgrade — someway, somehow.’ And no quarterback is immune from that. At some point, you’ve got to deliver.”
Florio softened his thoughts a bit, suggesting Goff doesn't necessarily have to guide the Lions to a Super Bowl win to solidify his place as the starter in Detroit for the rest of his career.
"You’ve got to deliver the Super Bowl berth. You don’t have to deliver the Super Bowl win, but you have to deliver the Super Bowl berth at some point. There’s a shelf-life there. We don’t know what it is, but it’s there."
READ MORE: ESPN analyst offers Lions' draft scenario to fully embrace Brad Holmes' message
Florio did stretch a little too far, suggesting if the Lions had Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow or Patrick Mahomes under center "they'd have won three in a row." But the overall point about Goff still stands.
The mention of Mahomes sort of sticks out. Several years ago, the Kansas City Chiefs recognized the lid on their ceiling with Alex Smith as their quarterback. So they traded up to draft Mahomes, made him their starter in his second season and now they have three Super Bowl rings to show for it.
The Lions could eventually get to the same point with Goff.
A disappointing season in 2026, however that would be defined, will naturally turn the heat up on general manager Brad Holmes and Dan Campbell. Goff should not be immune to that heat, and if it's thought that something has to change, the conversation about it being him will ratchet up.
It's easy, and convenient, to believe Goff can lead the Lions to a Super Bowl/a Super Bowl win. But it's reasonable to wonder if, and question if, he truly can. Those latter thoughts could be looming on an uncomfortable horizon some Lions' fans would rather ignore.
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