The Detroit Lions are finally getting a taste of divisional play.
It took six weeks, but the Lions are hosting the Green Bay Packers Sunday in a rivalry matchup with major NFC North ramifications. There’s no margin for error in this division, especially not for a Lions team that went 2-4 in divisional play last year and got swept by the Packers.
Detroit has one of the NFL’s top offenses, but a cellar-dwelling defense. Green Bay’s running game has been nonexistent and the defense has struggled to stay consistent. Both teams boast top-end talent with some glaring flaws under the surface. Here are four matchups that could dictate the way this game goes.
Josh Jacobs vs. Lions front seven
Josh Jacobs is expected to make his season debut in Detroit after a stint on the commissioner’s exempt list due to domestic abuse charges. With those apparently in the rear view mirror for some reason, he’s poised to breathe new life into a Packers running game that desperately needs it.
Green Bay currently ranks dead last in the NFL in EPA per rush (-0.3), rushing yards per game (59.8) and yards per carry (2.9). The Packers’ leading rusher, Marshawn Lloyd has rushed for 122 yards on 2.5 yards per attempt. Kaleb Johnson and Chris Brooks have been brutal as well.
Plenty of that can be attributed to poor play up front from the Packers’ offensive line. But don’t get it twisted, none of the Packers’ three current running backs are good players.
Jacobs has been one of the league’s better backs throughout his career. Maybe the Packers won’t immediately throw a full workload at him, but they might just be so desperate for a run game that they involve him plenty.
Detroit’s run defense has been rock solid against the New York Jets and Arizona Cardinals, and abhorrent against the Buffalo Bills and Carolina Panthers. Alim McNeill and Tyleik Williams have played well, but linebackers Derrick Barnes and Jack Campbell are having bad seasons.
It would make things easier for Detroit’s embattled defense if Green Bay continues to have a terrible running game. The versions of Jacobs, Campbell and the rest of the Lions’ front seven will go a long way in determining this one.
Edge Lukas Van Ness vs. right tackle Blake Miller
After a slow start to his career, edge rusher Lukas Van Ness has been a force for the Packers this season. The 2023 first-round pick is having a career year.
His 12 pressures and 3.5 sacks both lead the team and are 13th and 20th in the NFL respectively. He’s been instrumental in giving this defense a pulse amid the continued recovery of Micah Parsons.
Lions tackle Penei Sewell has handled the move to the left side quite well and continues to be one of the NFL’s best players. The more interesting matchup is how Lions rookie right tackle Blake Miller might handle Van Ness off the edge.
Miller has had a strong start to his career. His athleticism has really popped on the screen, and he’s graded out pretty well too. Plus, the Lions’ offensive line looked much worse without him in Week 2.
But he’s still a young player adjusting to the NFL. The focus up front for Detroit will likely be on center Cade Mays’ season debut, but Miller is going up against the best edge rusher he’s seen since Chase Young in Week 1. If he can keep Jared Goff clean, the Lions will be able to keep up with the Green Bay offense much better.
Wide receiver Christian Watson vs. cornerback DJ Reed
Oh, boy. Brian Branch’s return is a huge deal for this porous Lions secondary, but he isn’t an outside cornerback by trade. Someone’s still going to have to pick up these talented Green Bay receivers on the boundary.
Second-year man Matthew Golden is enjoying a breakout year, but Watson is the key matchup here because of the specific nature of his game. He’s one of the NFL’s biggest big-play threats, and a threat to burn you over the top on any given route.
Watson is currently fifth in the NFL in both receiving yards and yards per reception. He’s second in the NFL in receiving touchdowns with six, and his 81-yard touchdown in Week 1 is the second-longest play from scrimmage this season.
None of this information bodes well for a Lions defense that has given up 28 explosive plays this season, the most in the NFL. Cornerback DJ Reed has been a big part of those struggles, and the corners below him on the depth chart have been even worse.
Reed should have plenty of safety help in this game to mitigate some of the threat Watson presents, but he’s still going to have to at least somewhat hold his own for the Lions’ defense to have a prayer. Watson and quarterback Jordan Love can certainly make you pay.
Wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. nickel Javon Bullard
Amon-Ra St. Brown isn’t quite off to a torrid start this season, but he’s been so good for so long now that it’s easy to take his impact for granted. The sixth-year pro is averaging 74.4 receiving yards per game and leads Detroit in every major receiving statistic. He’s an unbelievably reliable presence underneath.
Packers nickel Javon Bullard is likely to be the main one guarding St. Brown out of the slot. He’s having a breakout year, and is rated as Pro Football Focus’s 10th-ranked safety in football. Bullard is a rangy, physical defender with a nose for the ball and some real chops against the run.
But Green Bay’s defense as a whole has largely struggled to defend the underneath areas of the field. A lot of that has been due to poor linebacker play, and Bullard has had to compensate for it.
This category could be a split ticket between St. Brown vs. Bullard and Sam LaPorta vs. Zaire Franklin and Co., but St. Brown and Bullard get the nod because it’s a more even player-on-player matchup.
If Goff and his top target get in a rhythm early, this Lions offense is tough to stop.
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