The Detroit Lions' defense is about to have a make-or-break moment.
The return of safety Brian Branch is a critical point for this defense. If it shows some improvement with its do-it-all DB back in the lineup from a torn Achilles, the Lions have something to build on. That should make them buyers at the November 10 trade deadline.
If it's still among the NFL's worst units, then Detroit can basically kiss any hopes of meaningful contention goodbye. The defense has been flat-out unworkable in multiple games this season. Before last week, it ranked near the bottom of the league in most conventional and advanced statistics.
The Lions still allow the most yards per game in the NFL and the fourth-highest points per game.
But yes, last Sunday's win over the lowly Arizona Cardinals was a good sign of a turnaround – or at the very least, that Detroit has nowhere to go but up defensively.
The Lions sacked quarterback Jacoby Brissett five times, and he completed just 29 of his 47 passing attempts. Arizona rushed for just 56 yards as a team on 18 attempts.
Yes, the Cardinals are one of the worst teams in the NFL. But the Lions were at a point, following their loss to the Carolina Panthers, where it looked like their defense was going to get in trouble from just about every offense in the NFL. After a slow first-quarter start, it's nice to see any encouraging results from this unit.
"I thought we were sticky in coverage, very disciplined minus a couple of plays there," head coach Dan Campbell said. "I thought (defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard) and the staff did an outstanding job and the players really responded, man. They took it to heart and tried to do all the little things right, and play with aggressiveness, and just really set the tone for the day."
Brian Branch's imminent return could help transform Lions' defense
This was what the Lions needed to see entering their bye week with one of their most impactful players potentially nearing a return.
Branch is a Swiss Army knife to the extreme on defense. His fusion of man coverage stickiness, zone coverage feel, blitz ferocity, sure tackling, and run defense instincts is unmatched by just about anyone in the NFL.
Offenses absolutely have to know where he is. His versatility makes everyone on the Lions' defense's job easier. When he's at his best, Branch is a truly transformative player.
It doesn't seem like fellow safety Kerby Joseph is returning from his mysterious knee injury anytime soon, or ever. That means Branch could be paired with rookie Keith Abney at safety.
Abney hadn't played safety since middle school, and almost exclusively played outside cornerback in college. But the Lions tried him at nickel before kicking him back to safety against Arizona – partly out of necessity and partly because it couldn't get any worse.
Abney looked good in coverage against Arizona and even picked off an end-of-half Hail Mary. Branch's do-it-all skill set, paired with Abney's ball-hawking instincts and smarts, could make for an intriguing safety combination.
The Lions' run defense has also been terribly inconsistent this year, looking very good against Arizona and the New York Jets but disastrous against the Panthers and Buffalo Bills. There's hope that Branch could help flatten that curve.
Why Lions need to temper expectations with Brian Branch initially
Of course, it's also reasonable to expect some rust for Branch. He hasn't played since December and is coming off a major injury. The long-term debilitating effects of a torn Achilles aren't as crippling as they once were, but he's probably not going to be at his All-Pro self right away either.
Achilles injuries often limit an athlete's initial burst and explosiveness. That trait is so important to Branch's game that it's fair to worry about. But he's still such a talented player, and one in a contract year at that.
Detroit has actually had a very productive pass rush this year, leading the NFL in sacks. It only adds to how frustrating the end result of this defense has been.
If Branch can come in and help shore up the Lions' coverage and run defense to be more towards the middle of the pack, this team becomes pretty interesting all of a sudden. Maybe Brad Holmes pulls off a cornerback trade.
If he comes back and this is still a bottom five defense in the NFL? Jeez.
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