A new contract extension projection for Lions quarterback Jared Goff

Whether the Detroit Lions extend Jared Goff or not is a question, but there’s an interesting new projection out there now.

Coming off one of the best seasons of his career and with two years left on his current deal, there’s broadly not a tone of urgency for the Detroit Lions to extend quarterback Jared Goff. But as the top of the quarterback market clears $50 million per year, he and/or his agents probably feel there is some urgency to adjust/extend his contract.

Lions general manager Brad Holmes has consistently advocated for Goff, as has head coach Dan Campbell. Taking Hendon Hooker in the third round of the draft, as he works his way back from a torn ACL, comes with an eye on the future. Campbell called this a “redshirt year” for Hooker. Holmes said fairly recently that there’s been some dialogue about an extension for Goff.

With cap hits the next two years of $30.975 million and $31.975 million, some may say Goff is now a bargain. But the Lions should only look at Goff’s own history, as the Rams gave him a big contract extension well before they had to, as a reason for caution. And Holmes was in the Rams’ front office when that happened.

A new contract extension projection for Lions quarterback Jared Goff

Our Andrew Erdman is on-board with Goff as the Lions franchise quarterback, with a contract extension projection of three years, $110-$115 million (roughly $36-$38 million per year).

Dallas Robinson of Pro Football Network laid out the situation with the Lions and Goff. The brunt of his piece is all well known information, so let’s get to the brass tacks of a contract projection.

"A short-term extension could work out for both sides. A two-year, $82 million pact would place Goff just above Daniel Jones, Dak Prescott, and Stafford in average annual value and put him on schedule to reach free agency in advance of his age-33 season."

Robinson did mention how giving Goff a new deal may be about optics, even as a sign the Lions are firmly committing to him beyond 2024. Saving current optics can become bad future dollars on the salary cap rather quickly though.

That said, depending on structure and possible outs, a two-year extension for Goff at $41 million per year feels reasonable and likely what his market value has become. If he wants more than that, in years or per year money average exceeding what the full guarantees are, that should be a no-go for the Lions.

After last season, Holmes said, “I think it’s a lot easier to get worse at quarterback than to get better at quarterback in this league.” That may be true, but it is also possible to kick an expensive can down the road too far because you’re afraid to replace a quarterback who’s a middle of the road talent. It’s a line the Lions are at, and have to toe, with Goff.