Among the best longshot NFL player props, at least according to Pro Football Focus, Amon-Ra St. Brown is considered a worthy bet to lead the league in a category.
Over the final weeks of last season, Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown was among the most prolific pass catchers in the NFL. That closing stretch won people a lot of money in fantasy football leagues.
St. Brown is not going to dominate target share in the Lions’ offense the way he did in the final six weeks of last season. With T.J. Hockenson and D’Andre Swift healthy, and the addition of DJ Chark, it won’t happen.
But it’s also too easy to just say St. Brown is set up to be a disappointment in his second season. The Lions’ offense will be better from the start, which will bring more and better opportunities for all involved.
Could Amon-Ra St. Brown lead the NFL in a category this year?
Mike Renner of Pro Football Focus, using odds from BetMGM as of Sept. 1, made a list of his best longshot player props for the 2022 season.
St. Brown is the preferred longshot to lead the league in receptions during the regular season, at +4000 (or 40/1, if you like fractional odds).
Here’s what Renner wrote.
"I could not believe my eyes when I saw this figure for St. Brown. He has the 20th-longest odds of any wide receiver to lead the league in catches. He finished 13th last year in receptions (90). That wouldn’t make sense if he was a proven veteran, let alone a rookie last season.From Week 11 on last year, St. Brown had the second-most receptions in the NFL (59) and became Jared Goff’s go-to guy. I don’t see that changing given his slot role in the offense. This is easily the most mispriced figure on this list."
St. Brown had 90 receptions last season, actually 16th in the league, with only 39 through 11 games (and 31 through 10 games, as Renner noted). Last year’s league-high reception total was 145, by Cooper Kupp.
It’s impossible to get all the way to boldly predicting St. Brown will lead the NFL in receptions this season with very much confidence. But in places where you can do so legally, is a small bet on it worth considering? Absolutely.