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Predicting how the Detroit Lions will use D’Andre Swift in 2020

By Brenden Armour

ATLANTA, GA - NOVEMBER 30: D'Andre Swift #7 of the Georgia Bulldogs rushes during the first half of the game against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Bobby Dodd Stadium on November 30, 2019 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)
ATLANTA, GA - NOVEMBER 30: D'Andre Swift #7 of the Georgia Bulldogs rushes during the first half of the game against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Bobby Dodd Stadium on November 30, 2019 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images) /
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D'Andre Swift, Detroit Lions
D’Andre Swift, Georgia Bulldogs (Photo by Steve Limentani/ISI Photos/Getty Images) /

Swift’s Rookie Year Projection

Let’s say that Swift being added to the group causes the Lions to rush the ball 250 times between just him and Johnson alone. Although Bevell gave Peterson 60 percent of carries between the top two runners on the 2007 Vikings team, let’s assume that in today’s NFL he only calls Swift’s name on 55% of all carries.

That would mean that Swift would carry the ball about 140 times in his rookie season. None of the top three runners averaged more than 4.3 yards per carry last year and Swift is a much better running back than any of those three backs. In a stacked SEC, Swift never averaged less than 6.2 yards per carry over a season.

The jump to the NFL will cause his average to decrease some, but let’s say he averages about 5.3 yards per carry. That would give Swift close to 750 rushing yards over the course of the season when given about 140 carries. Swift should also see plenty of red-zone carries as he is not afraid to lower his pads when he needs to.

On the ground, a rookie year of about 140 carries for 750 yards and around six touchdowns sound about right. But Swift can also more than handle his own as a pass-catcher. The Lions threw about 90 passes to around four running backs, give or take, last year.

Swift should be able to handle plenty of air targets out of the backfield. He should receive at least half of said targets, so targeting him about 50 times his rookie season is a reasonable number. Let’s say he catches 40 of those passes and averages about eight yards per catch, though it wouldn’t surprise me is he averaged over 10 yards a catch in the NFL.

That would give him around 320 receiving yards this upcoming season. The Lions weren’t shy about throwing to their running backs in the end-zone last year, even though the group only caught two touchdowns. Saying Swift can meet that number on his own is probably his floor.

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Overall, based on Bevell’s past play-calling and the Lions’ tendencies last year, look for Swift to get around 175-200 touches his rookie season. He is good enough to turn that into over 1,000 yards from scrimmage and if everything breaks right, he could even approach and surpass 1,500 yards from scrimmage. Touchdowns are hard to predict and largely depend on where the player gets the ball, but anywhere from seven to 10 touchdowns seems realistic for Swift in his rookie year.

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