Detroit Lions Draft: Odds on the No. 16 Pick
By Jeff Risdon
The Detroit Lions draft pick at No. 16 overall in the 2016 NFL Draft is quite the mystery. Trying to figure out what player will cross the stage in Chicago and don a Lions jersey like Laken Tomlinson, Eric Ebron, Ziggy Ansah and Riley Reiff have done in the last four first rounds is quite the parlor game this year.
With a new GM and tight-lipped new organizational philosophy, this game is akin to roulette. In keeping with that theme, I decided to break down the selection potential for several different prospects. Of course the variability and unknowns with this being Bob Quinn’s first draft and how the board above the No. 16 pick plays out changes it from the straight roulette pays.
Beginners always gravitate towards the simple roulette bet. Red or black? Here, those choices are offensive line and defensive line. All the other positions offer about the same hit chance as the green on the wheel.
| Positon group | Odds |
| Offensive Line | 3-to-1 |
| Defensive Line | 3-to-1 |
| Other | 15-to-1 |
You can make a lot of money here if you really believe the pick will be a wide receiver or linebacker, as some national pundits still project.
Those who want to try for higher payouts know to narrow down the possibilities some. Instead of just picking color, pick the numeric range.
| Position | Odds |
| Offensive Tackle | 4-to-1 |
| Defensive Tackle | 5-to-1 |
| Defensive End | 12-to-1 |
| Center | 20-to-1 |
| Wide Receiver | 20-to-1 |
| Linebacker | 25-to-1 |
Then there are the high roller shots, picking your individual player. This is the hardest because several of the players here might be drafted before the Lions ever get a chance to choose.
| Player | Position | Odds |
| Taylor Decker, Ohio State | OT | 8-to-1 |
| Shaq Lawson, Clemson | DE | 8-to-1 |
| Jarran Reed, Alabama | DT | 10-to-1 |
| Jason Spriggs, Indiana | OT | 10-to-1 |
| Ronnie Stanley, Notre Dame | OT | 12-to-1 |
| A’Shawn Robinson, Alabama | DT | 15-to-1 |
| Jack Conklin, Michigan State | OT | 15-to-1 |
| Kevin Dodd, Clemson | DE | 20-to-1 |
| Laquon Treadwell, Ole Miss | WR | 20-to-1 |
| Andrew Billings, Baylor | DT | 25-to-1 |
| Michael Thomas, Ohio State | WR | 30-to-1 |
| Ryan Kelly, Alabama | C | 30-to-1 |
| Reggie Ragland, Alabama | LB | 30-to-1 |
| Darron Lee, Ohio State | LB | 30-to-1 |
| Other | 40-to-1 |
Some of the players with longer odds here are more likely to be the actual pick than players with more favorable odds. That’s because while the Lions would be more inclined to select those players, it’s less likely they’re still on the board. There’s a balancing act here with the odds and speculation on player availability that no bookmaker would ever consider, which is why this is just for semi-informative fun.
If I had to bet right now (it’s 7:57 AM on April 18), I’d do this:
- $20 on Offensive Line
- $20 on Ronnie Stanley
- $20 on Jarran Reed
- $10 flier on Michael Thomas
I am a firm believer that if Stanley remains on the board at No. 16, he is the definitive choice. The question is, will he still be there?
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The one name not listed I might consider investing in is Houston CB William Jackson. The house will not take any action on Ole Miss DT Robert Nkemdiche.
Where would you select? Place your bets!