Just How Good is Matthew Stafford?
By Al Stahl
Matthew Stafford has been criticized for years. Let’s look at some numbers and compare him to the greats to see if the criticism is valid.
It seems every week there’s a debate about whether or not Matthew Stafford is the quarterback of the future for the Detroit Lions. New GM Bob Quinn seemed to fully back the University of Georgia product at his introductory press conference and it would appear from a front office perspective that Stafford is here to stay. That doesn’t keep fans and commentators from discussing his throwing mechanics and interception numbers and misreads and sloppy footwork and all of these things that frankly most of them know nothing about. So I wanted to look at some numbers.
Per Game Stats
I wanted to compare Stafford to three of the best quarterbacks to have played the game, and probably the three best quarterbacks of the past decade. I used the stats compiled by pro football reference to compare Stafford to Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers through their first seven seasons. Their per game stats are listed below:
| From | To | Cmp | Att | Yds | TD | Int | Sk | Yds | |
| Peyton Manning | 1998 | 2004 | 22 | 34.6 | 262.9 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 8.4 |
| Tom Brady | 2000 | 2006 | 19.8 | 31.9 | 224.6 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 12 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2005 | 2011 | 20 | 30.6 | 251.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 2.3 | 14.8 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2009 | 2015 | 24.2 | 39.7 | 279.3 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 14.5 |
Stafford is first among the group in completions per game, attempts per game and yards per game. None of those should be surprising with how much the Lions have passed during his time in Detroit. The Lions’ run game has been pretty pathetic during his tenure. Stafford is also right there in regards to touchdowns and interceptions per game, and he hasn’t been sacked any more than his contemporaries either. Staffords touchdown and interception numbers are comparable, but only because of his large number of attempts. So let’s dive a little further.
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TD/INT %
TD% and INT% are calculated by taking a quarterback’s touchdown passes and interceptions and dividing them by total attempts just like completion percentage, which is also included below. This gives you an idea of how often a quarterback is throwing touchdowns and interceptions. In looking at these numbers, I chose each quarterback’s first five full seasons*:
| Seasons | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | TD | TD% | Int | Int% | TD/Int | |
| Peyton Manning | 1998-2002 | 1749 | 2817 | 62.09% | 138 | 4.90% | 100 | 3.55% | 1.38 |
| Tom Brady | 2001-2005 | 1576 | 2545 | 61.93% | 123 | 4.83% | 66 | 2.59% | 1.86 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2008-2012 | 1716 | 2606 | 65.85% | 170 | 6.52% | 45 | 1.73% | 3.78 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2011-2015 | 1988 | 3218 | 61.78% | 144 | 4.47% | 77 | 2.39% | 1.87 |
*Brady and Rodgers missed two starts over this time span.
Looking at these numbers, you can see that Stafford is still pretty close to the cream of the NFL QB crop but he isn’t quite on par with these guys. Stafford is five completions short of matching Brady’s completion percentage but doesn’t come close to touching Rodgers’ 65.85%.
Stafford is well behind the trio in regards to TD%, needing 11 more touchdowns over that span to match the next lowest rate (Brady’s). Think about it this way: If Rodgers maintained his touchdown rate of 6.52% over Stafford’s 3,218 attempts, he would have 210 touchdowns in that span. Stafford has had 144.
Stafford, the guy who’s been bashed time and time again about his interceptions, fares quite well compared to these three, trailing only the inhuman Rodgers. Think about it this way: If Manning maintained Stafford’s interception rate of 2.39% over this span, it would have saved him 33 interceptions. 33.
Maybe it’s time we start cutting Stafford a little slack in that regard.
Looking at TD/INT, Stafford looks pretty good here as well. The one thing that stands out is that Aaron Rodgers is an alien. Seriously, 3.78 touchdowns thrown for every interception? That’s insane.
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The Future
Looking at the career stats for Manning, Brady and Rodgers, you can see there’s a year for each where they took off. Whether it’s based on completion percentage or TD/INT ratio or a combination, each quarterback took a leap after some number of years.
For Manning, it was in his sixth season as a full-time starter. Manning maintained his high completion percentage from the year before while cutting his interceptions in half. That season, Manning completed 67% of his passes with 29 TDs and 10 INTs. It also happened to be the year Manning had his first real playoff run, losing in the AFC Championship game to Brady’s Patriots.
For Brady, it was in 2007. Brady was already a two-time Super Bowl champion with a 4,000 yard season under his belt, but in his seventh season as a full-time starter, Brady’s completion percentage jumped 6.5% over his career average, he doubled his touchdown passes, cut his interceptions down into the single digits and finished with 4,806 yards passing. Since then, his completion percentage has hovered around 64%, his touchdowns have stayed around 30+ per season and his interceptions have dipped into single digits more times than they haven’t. All of these are better than any of his seasons prior to 2007.
For Rodgers, it was his fourth season as a full-time starter, and his seventh overall. In that season, Rodgers’ completion percentage hit a career high 68.3% while passing for 45 touchdowns and just 6 interceptions. You can even go back to the prior season, Green Bay’s Super Bowl winning season, where things seemed to click for Rodgers about halfway through it. After a 9-0 loss to the Jets, Rodgers had four straight games where he completed over 70% of his passes while throwing 11 touchdown passes and zero interceptions.
Without trying to get you too excited, go ahead and look at Stafford’s numbers over the Lions’ last six games this year. I’ll wait.
Summary
Through their first seven seasons, Stafford has been asked to pass more than Manning, Brady and Rodgers were, largely due to the Lions offense’s inability to generate offense on the ground. Through their first five full seasons, Stafford has been great but not quite as good as the other three, especially in regards to touchdown passes.
I hope no one expected this article to end by stating Stafford was as good as three Super Bowl winning quarterbacks who are probably the best to ever play the game. However, based on these stats and the way Stafford finished this season, Lions fans should point the blame somewhere else. Any questions that fans and commentators have regarding Stafford’s ability should be put to rest. Even though expectations are often tempered in Detroit, hopes should be high regarding Matthew Stafford’s future.