Football is an extremely tough game to evaluate, especially from a fan’s perspective, and most especially when that fan has never played a down of organized football. The surface stuff is easy enough to follow — you can usually pick out the best skill position players and the big-impact defenders — but issues like evaluating line play can be difficult for even the most passionate fan.
That’s why I don’t know what to think about Jeff Backus, a player whose advanced stats couldn’t tell a more different tale than what sticks out about him when I’ve watched Lions games. It’s the classic battle of stat nerd versus eyeball-test traditionalist, except that battle is being waged between my own ears.
According to the fantastic “Old Mother Hubbard” series at Lions in Winter, Backus graded out as a solidly above-average left tackle for the second consecutive year in 2010:
"Of course, the man of the hour is Jeff Backus, and unsurprisingly he’s the Lions’ best offensive tackle. His overall +1.4 grade puts him 21st out of 78 offensive tackles; 13th out of left tackles. His pass block grade slots him 27th, 14th amongst qualifying left tackles. His run block grade is 33rd, 16th amongst left tackles. His four penalties called (one declined/offset) gave him the 8th-best penalty grade in the NFL (5th-best amongst left tackles. You’ll notice that his blue line is solidly above the thick black AVERAGE; that’s correct. Jeff Backus performed like an above-average tackle in 2010."
To me, this is mind-blowing. I’ve been a Lions fan for as long as Jeff Backus has been on the team, and very fondly remember his days at Michigan, but for the past few seasons my football-watching friends and I have been calling for Detroit to find someone — anyone — to replace Backus as soon as possible. Though I cannot place the exact events any more specifically than during the Jon Kitna era, I distinctly remember Backus literally getting picked up off the ground and tossed aside, rag-doll style, by much smaller defensive ends en route to sacks twice in the same season, one of which resulted in a safety (readers/fellow writers, help me out here, as Google apparently cannot). And of course, there’s this, the greatest reason for concern when it comes to Backus:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_CkORRd1I6k
Yes, Jeff Backus grades out well when it comes to pass blocking, but it appears that when pitted against elite NFL defensive ends, he’s a ticking time bomb when it comes to giving up a big sack. Matt Stafford got injured in 2010 because Jeff Backus got absolutely torched by Julius Peppers, and while Backus certainly isn’t the first to suffer that fate, it brings up a big red flag moving forward for Detroit — can the Lions afford to potentially risk Stafford’s health by continuing to guard his blind side with an aging Backus?
I’m really not sure how to answer that question. One issue, of course, is the available talent on the roster and in free agency — for now, it appears that Detroit has no choice but to start Backus at left tackle. The other is that, at least statistically speaking, I’m not sure the team can do much better in the short term. By circumstance and choice, it appears Martin Mayhew’s answer is ‘yes,’ and ultimately that’s all that matters. Unfortunately, that means we could be in for some nerve-wracking moments if Backus can’t keep Stafford upright, and I can’t shake the feeling that we may look back and wonder why the team didn’t have a left tackle replacement ready sooner.