The Detroit Lions’ 2016 Season Win-Loss Prediction
By Al Stahl
Earlier this offseason I highlighted each of the teams the Lions will face this year. That includes teams in the AFC South, NFC East along with the Saints and Rams and, of course, the NFC North. In each of the posts I wrote, I listed the Lions’ odds of winning that game. Let’s take a look and see what it means for the regular season.
What I’ll be doing is totaling the Lions’ winning percentages from each of those three articles and tallying one win for every 100% reached. For example, if I have he Lions’ odds of winning at 50% for all four games against a division, that would total 200%, meaning the Lions would be expected to go 2-2 against that division.
AFC South
Let’s look at the AFC South. The Lions host the Jaguars and Titans while traveling on the road to Houston and Indianapolis. In my previous article I listed the Lions’ chances of winning as follows:
Lions’ chances for a road victory in Houston: 49%
Lions’ chances for a road victory in Indianapolis: 60%
Lions’ chances for a home victory against Jacksonville: 73%
Lions’ chances for a home victory against Tennessee: 89%
That totals 271%, so we’ll consider Detroit’s record against the AFC South as 2.71 wins and 1.29 losses. It’s worth noting the Colts weren’t facing such dire injury concerns when that article was initially written.
NFC East
Detroit hosts the Redskins and Eagles while heading to the Meadowlands and Dallas. Much like the AFC South, it seems like the Lions will be hosting the worse teams and visiting the better teams in the division. Well, at least until Tony Romo broke his back. The December matchup with the Cowboys should result in a somewhat healthy Tony Romo though, so we won’t be making any adjustments to the percentages here. On to the odds:
Lions’ chances for a home victory against Washington: 67%
Lions’ chances for a home victory against Philadelphia: 63%
Lions’ chances for a road victory in New York: 40%
Lions’ chances for a road victory in Dallas: 38%
The total here is 208%, which equates to a record of 2.08 wins and 1.92 losses. Adding in the Lions’ projected record against the AFC South, that bring the total to 4.79 wins and 3.21 losses. Before we take a look at the NFC North, let’s add in the two one-off games against the Rams and Saints.
Third Place in the NFC South and NFC West
Since Detroit finished third in the NFC North last season, they face the third place finishers in the two NFC divisions they do not play this season. That ends up being the Los Angeles Rams and the New Orleans Saints. Let’s see what my predictions show:
Lions’ chances of a home victory against Los Angeles: 85%
Lions’ chances of a road victory in New Orleans: 53%
Busting out the math again, the adds up to 138%, or 1.38 wins and .62 losses. That brings the Detroit win/loss record to: 6.17 wins and 3.83 losses. If that holds true, it means a winning record in the division is required to make the playoffs. A losing record likely puts the team on their couches the second week in January. So let’s see how I’ve got things shaking out.
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NFC North
In 2015, Detroit was 3-3 in the division. They were quite literally one play away from finishing 4-2, and they were just as close to finishing 2-4. There will be some differences around the NFC North this year. The Packers will have a healthy Jordy Nelson. The Bears will have a healthy Kevin White. The Vikings will have a brand new stadium to play in. The Lions are hoping to pick up on a strong finish and keep the momentum going. Let’s see what I think:
Lions’ chances of a road victory in Chicago: 50%
Lions’ chances of a home victory against Chicago: 75%
Lions’ chances of a road victory in Green Bay: 30%
Lions’ chances of a home victory against Green Bay: 40%
Lions’ chances for a road victory in Minnesota: 20%
Lions’ chances for a home victory against Minnesota: 45%
These odds tally up to just 260%. That’s 2.6 wins and 3.4 losses. When you add that to the 6.17 and 3.83 record we calculated through all the non-division games, that adds up to 8.77 wins and 7.23 losses. That’s probably going to end up being pretty close to how Detroit actually finishes the season.
8.77 wins and 7.23 losses
You may be tempted to add a little bit to the Lions’ chances against the Colts or Cowboys, or you may think the chances against their division opponents are a little lower than you think. Even if you add 10% here and 15% there, it isn’t going to move the team beyond the 9 win range.
Detroit needs to win most of their toss-up games in order to challenge for a playoff spot. Don’t agree with me? Let me know what you think and where the Lions’ chances should be instead. You can find me on twitter @LethalSax.