In case you haven't already, I implore you to take a look around the NFC right now.
Through six weeks, there's maybe one clear juggernaut in the conference, and that's the San Francisco 49ers. They remain undefeated through six games, looking great on both sides of the ball.
The Minnesota Vikings are undefeated, too, but there's a looming cloud over the viability of their offense while helmed by Kyler Murray. The entire NFC North, while all winning right now, has their warts. But, it is a truly nasty conference year for the NFC overall.
This should give Detroit Lions fans a lot of hope. The team, as frustrating as its been to watch, has been getting better each week. Coming out their bye, they'll also be healthier with Cade Mays and Brian Branch in tow. And, their offense continues to reach new heights behind an MVP-caliber start from Jared Goff, and a great debut season from offensive coordinator Drew Petzing.
While you might be convinced based off the Lions' improvement, or their strength of schedule, or just how weak the rest of the conference is, we still looked at four metrics to add to a case for contention in 2026.
4 metrics to prove the Lions are closer than you think
Offensive DVOA
The Lions' current offensive DVOA is 10th in the league, per Pride of Detroit's Jeremy Reisman. They've got work to do with both their run game and passing game (weirdly, they're ranked higher with their rush despite Jared Goff having zero interceptions). But, faster starts and a better efficiency on third down conversions should help them to rise up here.
Couple that with getting Mays back, and they could be looking at a full-strength offense that gets even better run blocking for the rest of the year.
Pass rush win rate
On defense, there's less to write home about. Their obvious strength is their defensive line, and specifically their pass rush. They are winning in pass rush 60 percent of the time so far this season, which is good for third overall in the league. This is a huge key to basically any contending team's success throughout the postseason.
How often have we seen Super Bowl winning teams controlling the tempo of just about the entirety of that game because of an elite pass rush? The Seattle Seahawks just proved this, and before them, it was the Philadelphia Eagles. The Lions are in an excellent spot with their defensive front.
EPA/play
The Lions are currently 3rd overall in the NFL in EPA/play, or expected points added per play, with .16. They're only behind the 49ers and the Buffalo Bills in this metric. It's a slightly better way to measure actual impact on offense, in my opinion, than going off of DVOA. I feel it is a metric that passes the eye test more often, as made clear by their slightly worse rushing EPA/play compared to their passing EPA/play.
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It's proof that, despite some issues with slower starts, a slightly more grounded run game than expected, and a poor third-down conversion rate, they're still atop the league offensively. If they clean things up in at least two of these departments, you have to expect that they'll top this metric by the year's end.
Remaining strength of schedule
Detroit held one of the easiest schedules this season. Through five games, though, they're 3-2. One contest dropped to the white-hot Bills, and another to the Carolina Panthers and their extremely good passing game, handed them two pretty bad losses.
For the rest of the year, the Lions now have the 6th-hardest schedule remaining. It's important to note that this is based on their opponents' records, and their most difficult remaining games are listed as against the NFC North, against the New England Patriots, and against the New York Giants.
With health on their side, in addition to the fact that the Packers defense has yet to face a quarterback as good as Goff this year, it feels safe to say that their schedule isn't nearly as daunting as Tankathon makes it out to be. With how poorly the rest of the conference has performed, too, their remaining schedule feels ideal for a run at a divisional title and, at least, a spot in the postseason.
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