Weighed against their standard, the Detroit Lions didn't have a great day on the ground against the Green Bay Packers in Week 14. 111 yards looks fine, but 3.3 yards per carry overall and 3.2 yards per carry from David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs combined is not great.
Head coach Dan Campbell and running backs coach Scottie Montgomery have lightly lamented the lack of efficiency and explosive plays in the run game against Green Bay. The likely return of left tackle Taylor Decker for Week 15 against the Buffalo Bills will certainly help.
Overall, the Bills are a mid-pack run defense this season (14th in the league). But they have allowed over 120 yards on the ground in four of their last five games, and they are bottom-10 in the league in yards per carry allowed (4.7). They allow big plays (sixth-most 10-plus yard runs), but they are also No. 1 in stuffed rate (h/t to Jeremy Reisman of Pride of Detroit for those last two notes).
Lions running back duo has highly exploitable way to burn Bills' defense
In a broad sense, the ground game will be important for the Lions on Sunday as they look to keep Josh Allen and the Bills' offense off the field. Montgomery and Gibbs will of course be the driving forces on that front.
But looking beyond the sheer run game, the Lions' running back duo have a matchup advantage against Buffalo's defense that offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has surely uncovered in shaping his game plan.
The Bills enter Week 15 allowing the most receptions (74), the most targets (95) and the third-most receiving yards (579) to running backs this season.
Buffalo has allowed
— Honolulu Blues (@HonoluluBlues_) December 11, 2024
- 74 receptions to opposing RBs (2nd most in NFL)
- 95 pass attempts to opposing RBs (most in NFL)
- 579 receiving yards to opposing RBs (3rd most in NFL)
I’m just guessing here, but look for a few extra designed screens/checkdowns to Sonic and Knuckles
We know what Gibbs brings to the table as a pass catcher, however underutilized he seems to be in that area at times. As much as it would be nice to see Gibbs get more targets, Montgomery has been fantastic as a pass catcher this year. Al Karsten of Pride of Detroit had some updated data on that front heading into Week 15.
David Montgomery Receiving Threat (RB Ranks):
— Al Karsten (@FootballGuy_Al) December 10, 2024
• 9.7 Yards/Rec (3rd)
• 94.1% Catch Rate (2nd)
• +8.7% Catch Rate Over Expectation (3rd)
• +13.9 Receiving EPA (2nd)
• +82 YACOE (9th)
• 2.3 Yards/Route Run (1st)
He's sneakily been the most efficient receiving RB this season.
Expect the Detroit ground game to have a rebound day on Sunday. But the huge vulnerability the Bills' defense has covering running backs is impossible to ignore, and it surely will not be with the two weapons the Lions have in the backfield.