Predicting outcome of Lions-Saints by comparing teams in 7 key categories

The Detroit Lions and New Orleans Saints will be kicking off against one another in Week 1.

Both teams are a bit banged up ahead of the contest, but neither are missing a critical number of starters. This should be a great test for both units, with New Orleans seeking to become dominant again in a weak NFC South, and with Detroit looking to pace the NFC North during contentious year.

But, how do these two teams stack up against one another on paper? And, could the strength of their six main units help to determine who has the edge in their season opener? Well, we're going to dive into those positional groups and try to do just that by looking at both teams' depth throughout their roster and giving points to the stronger units.

Comparing Lions and Saints in 6 main categories

Quarterback

Detroit opted not to carry three quarterbacks into the regular season, which is on par for them. New Orleans, on the other hand, has three QBs headed into this game between Shough, Rattler, and Wilson.

As a New York Jets fan, I've got to say, I had no idea that Zach Wilson was still employed by an NFL team. But, he has somehow persisted as a backup or QB3 for the last few seasons, and will likely just be the backup to New Orleans' backup, Rattler.

Shough proved he had some stuff in 2025, finishing up the season with 2,384 passing yards and 10 touchdowns along with a 91.3 passer rating, but he threw six interceptions and had a QBR of 48.8. He folds a ton under pressure (he finished 27th in sack-to-pressure ratio), which could be a big concern for New Orleans with how strong Detroit's front seven is to start the year.

Goff, on the flip side, has been the most consistent piece of the Lions' offense for the last several seasons. You definitely trust his ability to both hold onto the football and limit turnover opportunities compared to Shough's ability to do the same. So, we give the point to the Lions here.

Running back

We've popped an asterisk next to Kamara's name as it's not confirmed whether or not he'll be available for this game. There was one report from Nick Underhill that suggested he would be, though.

Etienne joined the Saints this offseason, coming off a 1,107 rushing yard season with the Jacksonville Jaguars. He's definitely going to be a problem for the Lions' defense to handle, especially since he's also integrated into the Saints' passing game. Kamara's health would post another problem for the Lions, but we'll assume they'll have Kamara is limited in his return.

Gibbs makes Detroit's running back room quite top heavy, but it's hard to judge how well the rest of their run game will fare between Vaki and Saylors. Saylors was one of the best running backs in preseason this year, finishing up with 187 rushing yards and 40 receiving yards through three contests. But, that doesn't necessarily mean his impact will translate to the regular season.

Vaki also barely got run because of a number of injuries he'd suffered in training camp - first a broken nose, and then a back injury.

We'll have to, perhaps surprisingly, give the Saints the edge here with so many unknowns around Detroit's run game. But, we'll be happy to be proven very wrong by a 200 rushing yard day out of Gibbs.

Pass-catchers

Injuries have already hit the Saints on this front, taking down rookie receiver Jordyn Tyson ahead of Week 1. This leaves a ton of opportunity for New Orleans to lean on Olave, as well as their solid tight end room.

However, Detroit's pass catching depth is unbelievably strong headed into this game. LaPorta is healthy again, while they've also got high hopes in TeSlaa at WR3. St. Brown and Williams are huge problems for any defense to deal with, and Goff is one of the most accurate passers in the NFL. So, even if the Saints are sticky in coverage, it might not matter.

We'll give the Lions the point here.

Secondaries

We already know the Saints get the point here. They had one of the best defenses in the NFL at the end of 2025, acting as proper wreckers against their late-year opponents in 2025 once they had nothing to lose. They've got a young, bright future in both their secondary and on their defensive line.

Detroit, of course, is a bit of a mystery in their secondary headed into Week 1. Reed is phenomenal, and we've seen what Clark and Maddox have accomplished in their careers as defensive backs. But, we don't know how well Ya-Sin will hold up at CB2, nor is there a clear starting nickel for this Lions defense.

Izien may also not play in this game because it's a short week, per head coach Dan Campbell, hence the asterisk next to his name.

Front seven

Due to health, we'll give the Lions the point here. They're trotting out one of their strongest defensive fronts next to Hutchinson possibly in his career, which is both sad and positive. The fact that it took so long to form this sort of front is sad, but it is positive that a majority of this line was built through the draft.

New Orleans will still pose a problem for the Lions' offensive line, especially due to Young and Granderson. But, with no Cam Jordan in the mix, Detroit feels like the stronger unit overall headed into Week 1.

Linebackers

Another point for the Lions here with Campbell, Barnes, and Rodriguez - the Lions' typical starting three linebackers - all healthy for Week 1. Just this week, it was reported that newcomer and veteran Devin White had actually lit a bit of a fire under Barnes and Rodriguez in practice and training camp, which bodes well for Detroit's run defense and additional pass coverage.

Offensive lines

Banks, Edwards, and McCoy form one of the strongest left sides of an offensive line in the league headed into 2026, so they automatically have a leg-up on the Lions' line right now. Ruiz and Fuaga have room for improvement upon a poor 2025, but Shough's blind side feels pretty protected between the work of their starting center, left guard, and left tackle.

For Detroit, their only sure-fire solid starters along the line right now are Sewell and Ratledge. Miller's rookie debut comes this Sunday against a strong Saints defensive line, and Scruggs is suddenly starting at center after winning out that competition in camp due to Cade Mays' injury.

Their left guard room is where things are really in flux. The team is planning to rotate between guards at that position, which could either go really well (they find an obvious starter by doing this) or really badly (they lack cohesion and communication as a result of so much change on the line throughout a game).

We will give New Orleans the point here.

Results

Detroit "beats out" New Orleans by a score of 4-3 here, which is probably a lot closer than fans would've thought. Of course, anything can happen in Week 1, and this is in no way a catch-all way to analyze an obvious winner or loser from this contest. But, it'll be interesting to see if this analysis holds up against how each of these units actually does on Sunday afternoon.

And, if this really does portend a Lions win.

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